공동체 치안이 실종 치매노인 조기 발견에 미치는 효과성 연구 : 마을버스 협업 사례분석 = A Study on the Effectiveness of Community Policing on Quickly Discovering the Missing Elderly with Dementia- Case Study of Local Police-Town Bus Partnership -

국문 초록 (Abstract)

급속한 고령화 사회로 발전하는 단계에서 여러 가지 문제 중 치매노인의 증가 역시 빠르게 진행될 것으로 예상된다. 치매노인 실종은 당사자의 생명과 직결되고 범죄로 인한 가해자·피해자가 되기도 하며 가족의 우울증·자살 등 심각한 가정 및 사회문제를 가져 올 수 있다. 이러한 맥락에서, 본 연구는 도심 속에서 치매노인이 실종되었을 때 신속히 발견하여 안전사고·범죄 등이 발생하지 않도록 경찰과 마을버스가 협업한 공동체 치안 실험 사례를 분석하였다.
QGIS 프로그램을 활용하여 실종 치매노인의 특징을 지도상에 구현하였고 치매노인과 마을버스와의 관계, 성별에 따른 특징 등을 표시하였다. 생존분석을 통해 공동체 치안 전·후의 시간에 따른 치매노인의 생존가능성을 비교하고 회귀분석을 통해 실종된 치매노인의 안전사고(119후송 및 병원진료)에 영향을 미치는 요인을 도출하였다.
생존분석을 통해 발견까지 걸리는 시간에 따른 치매노인의 생존가능성을 살펴본 결과, 실종된 치매노인을 발견하는 시간이 오래 걸릴수록 생존가능성이 감소되는 것을 확인하였다. 공동체 치안 전·후를 비교 해보았을 때 시간이 경과함에 따라 공동체 치안에 의해 발견된 실종 치매노인이 기존의 수색방식에 따라 발견된 치매노인보다 안전사고(119후송 및 병원진료)를 요하는 상황에 이를 가능성이 낮다는 점이 드러난다. 공동체 치안이 적용되어 발견된 실종 치매노인의 경우 안전사고(119후송 및 병원진료)를 요하지 않을 가능성이 75%에 이르는 데 반해, 공동체 치안을 적용하지 않고 기존의 수색방식에 따라 발견된 치매 노인은 안전사고(119후송 및 병원진료)를 요하지 않을 가능성이 25%에 그쳐, 공동체 치안 시책이 적용된 경우 안전사고(119후송 및 병원진료)를 요하지 않고 무사히 발견될 가능성이 높음을 보여준다.
또한, 이항 로지스틱 회귀분석을 통해 실종된 치매노인의 안전사고(119후송 및 병원진료)에 영향을 미치는 요인을 확인한 결과, 공동체 치안 요인에서는 마을버스 협업, 환경적 요인에서는 계절과 시간범위에서 통계적으로 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 구체적으로 공동체치안 요인에서는 마을버스 협업 이전과 비교하였을 때 마을버스 협업(OR=0.019, p<.05), 환경적 요인에서는 계절 중 여름과 비교하였을 때 가을(OR=0.009, p<.05), 겨울(OR=0.001, p<.05), 시간범위에서는 4시∼8시를 비교하였을 때 9시부터 11시(OR=0.014, p<.05)의 영향을 받는 것으로 분석되었다.
마을버스 협업을 활용한 경우는 활용하지 않은 경우보다 치매노인의 안전사고(119후송 및 병원진료) 가능성이 0.019배 유의미(p<.05)하게 낮아졌다. 공동체 치안(마을버스 협업)을 활용하여 지역주민들의 관심을 이끌어 내고 실종자 발견을 위한 사회의 시야를 확장시켰으며, 경찰과 버스기사가 적극적인 협업 노력을 통해 실종된 치매노인을 보다 신속하고 안전하게 발견할 수 있게 되었다고 설명할 수 있겠다.
위 공동체 치안을 바탕으로 실종자 수색을 위한 예측전략 및 실종예방 매뉴얼을 제언하였으며 공동체 치안의 효과성, 한계점, 지역사회에 미치는 영향 등을 종합적으로 정리하여 자치경찰 시대에 공동체 치안의 방향성을 논의하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

At the stage of rapid development into an aging society, the number of elderly people with dementia is expected to increase rapidly as well. The disappearance of the elderly with dementia is directly related to the life of the person concerned and can lead to serious family and social problems such as depression and suicide of the family.
In this context, this study analyzed a case of community policing experiments in which police and town buses collaborated to prevent safety accidents and crimes by quickly discovering the missing elderly with dementia when they disappeared in the city center.
Using the QGIS program, the characteristics of the missing elderly with dementia; and the relationship between the elderly with dementia and the town bus were presented on the map. The viability of the elderly with dementia over time before and after implementing community policing project was compared through survival analysis; and factors influencing the safety treatments (119 evacuation and hospital treatment) of the elderly with dementia were derived through binary logistic regression analysis.
As a result of examining the viability of the elderly with dementia according to the time, it was confirmed that the viability decreased as it took longer to find the missing elderly with dementia. Comparing before and after implementing community policing project, it is revealed that the missing elderly with dementia discovered by community policing project are less likely to require safety treatments (119 evacuation and hospital treatment) over time than those discovered according to the existing search method. The missing elderly with dementia found with community policing project are 75% likely not to require safety treatments (119 evacuation and hospital treatment), while those found according to the existing search method are only 25% likely to not require safety treatments (119 evacuation and hospital treatment).
As a result of binary logistic regression analysis, meanwhile, it was found that the factors influencing the safety treatments (119 evacuation and hospital treatment) of the missing elderly with dementia were statistically affected by the community policing project that town buses cooperated in search of the missing elderly with police. Specifically, it was analyzed that compared to before the local police-town bus partnerships, the local police-town bus partnerships was affected(OR=0.019, p<.05), and compared to summer during the season, in the autumn(OR=0.009, p<.05), winter(OR=0.001, p<.05), and compared to 4 o'clock to 8 o'clock time range was affected from 9 o'clock to 11 o'clock(OR=0.014, p<.05).
In the case of implementing local police-town bus partnerships, the likelihood of safety treatments (119 evacuation and hospital treatment) of the elderly with dementia was 0.019 times lower (p<.05). It can be explained that community policing (local police-town bus partnerships) has been used to draw attention from local residents; and expand social horizons for the discovery of missing people; and therefore the police and bus drivers can find the missing elderly with dementia more quickly and safely.
Based on the results of the study, a strategy and manual for the search for missing people were proposed. Subsequently, the effectiveness, limitations, and impact on the community policing project such as local police-town bus partnerships were comprehensively discussed in accordance with the era of autonomous police.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제 1 장 서 론······························································1
• 제 1 절 연구의 배경··················································1
• 1. 고령인구 및 치매 유병률의 증가·························1
• 2. 실종 치매노인의 신속한 발견 필요성···················2
• 3. 종래 실종 치매노인 수색의 문제점······················4
• 제 2 절 연구의 목적····················································6
• 제 2 장 이론적 배경 및 선행연구··································8
• 제 1 절 이론적 배경··················································8
• 1. 지역사회 경찰활동············································8
• 2. 문제 지향적 경찰활동······································11
• 3. 집합효율성 이론·············································13
• 4. 치매노인의 배회·············································14
• 제 2 절 선행연구·····················································17
• 1. 실종자 발견 관련 국내 선행연구·······················17
• 2. 실종자 발견 관련 국외 선행연구·······················21
• 제 3 장 마을버스 협업이 실종 치매노인
• 조기 발견에 미치는 영향······································25
• 제 1 절 치매노인과 버스와의 관계 사례····················25
• 제 2 절 마을버스 협업 실험 개관······························28
• 제 3 절 연구 가설···················································32
• 제 4 절 연구 자료···················································32
• 제 5 절 분석 방법···················································37
• 1. 변수의 측정·····················································37
• 2. 생존분석·······················································38
• 1) 실종 치매노인의 생존가능성 비교··················38
• 2) 기술통계··························································39
• 3. 이항 로지스틱 회귀분석··································40
• 1) 공동체 치안이 치매노인 안전에 미치는 영향···40
• 2) 기술통계 및 교차분석········································40
• 제 6 절 분석 결과···················································42
• 1. 발견 소요시간에 따른 치매노인의 생존가능성···42
• 2. 치매노인의 안전사고에 영향을 미치는 요인······43
• 제 4 장 결론····························································47
• 제 1 절 연구요약 및 제언········································47
• 제 2 절 연구의 한계 및 방향성·································53
• 1. 공동체 치안 운영상의 한계······························53
• 2. 후속 연구의 방향성·········································55
• 참고문헌··································································58
• Abstract··································································62