Demographic changes and real housing prices in Canada

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• 1. INTRODUCTION = 1
• 2. REAL HOUSING PRICE DETERMINATION MODEL = 3
• 2.1 Housing Demand = 3
• 2.1.1 Housing Use Cost = 3
• 2.1.2 Headship Rate and the Aggregate Housing Demand = 4
• 2.2 Housing Supply = 5
• 2.3 Market Equilibrium = 6
• 3. HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF REAL HOUSING PRICES IN CANADA = 8
• 3.1 Data Available on Housing Price = 8
• 3.1.1 Multiple Listing Service(MLS) Price = 8
• 3.1.2 New Housing Price Index = 8
• 3.1.3 Price of Housing Financed under the National Housing Act = 9
• 3.1.4 National Balance Sheet Accounts Data = 9
• 3.1.5 Comparisons of these Data with a Constant Quality Index = 10
• 3.2 Historical Evolution of Real Housing Prices in Canada = 11
• 3.2.1 Price Level Evolution = 11
• 3.2.2 Rate of Change in Real Housing Prices = 14
• 3.3 Evolution of the Factors Influencing Prices = 15
• 3.3.1 Demographic Changes = 15
• 3.3.2 Macroeconomic Conditions = 17
• 3.3.3 Housing Use Cost = 17
• 3.3.4 Housing Activity = 18
• 3.4 Regional Housing Price Evolution = 20
• 3.5 Analytical Summary of Price Evolution = 20
• 4. DEMOGRAPHICS AND HOUSING IN GENERAL INTEREST MAGAZINES = 21
• 4.1 Foot and Stoffman : Two-Thirds of Everything = 21
• 4.2 A Trend Rising from the South = 22
• 4.3 A Positive Reception from Generalists = 23
• 4.4 Exit Footmania = 24
• 5. EMPIRICAL DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES ON HOUSING PRICES = 26
• 5.1 The Laycock Study = 26
• 5.2 The Mankiw and Weil(MW) Study = 26
• 5.3 1991 Criticisms of the MW Model = 28
• 5.3.1 Engelhardt and Poterba : Analysis of Canadian Data = 28
• 5.3.2 Hamilton and the Price of Housing Services = 29
• 5.3.3 Hendershott : The MW Equation has a Poor Forecasting Performance = 29
• 5.3.4 Holland : Non-stationarity and Co-integration between Demand and Stock = 29
• 5.3.5 The Mankiw and Weil Response = 30
• 5.4 Later Criticisms of the MW Model = 31
• 5.4.1 Poterba : The Importance of Local Markets = 31
• 5.4.2 Swan : The MW Model is Incomplete = 31
• 5.4.3 Pitkin and Myers : The Confusion Between Age and Cohort = 32
• 5.4.4 Green and Hendershott : The MW Variable Challenged = 32
• 5.4.5 DiPasquale and Wheaton : Housing Price Dynamics = 33
• 5.4.6 Ohtake and Shintani : The Japanese Housing Market = 34
• 5.5 Other Studies on the Relationship Between Demographics and the Housing Market = 34
• 5.5.1 Fair and Dominguez : Demographics and Macroeconomic Equations = 34
• 5.5.2 Ermisch and the Housing Demand in Great Britain = 35
• 5.5.3 Holly and Jones : Co-integration between Housing Price and Real Income = 35
• 5.6 Synthesis of the Results = 36
• 6. THE EMPIRICAL MODEL = 37
• 6.1 Specification of the Empirical Model = 37
• 6.2 Stationarity and Co-integration Tests = 39
• 6.3 Estimate Results = 40
• 6.4 Interpretation of Results = 42
• 6.4.1 Statistical Impact of Shocks = 42
• 6.4.2 Dynamic Impact of Shocks = 42
• 6.5 Provincial Estimates = 43
• 7. HOUSING PRICE PROJECTIONS = 46
• 7.1 Analysis for the 1956-1997 Period = 46
• 7.1.1 Demographic Impact = 46
• 7.1.2 Impact of Economic Conditions = 47
• 7.2 Projections for the 1998-2016 Period = 47
• 7.2.1 Demographic and Economic Projections = 47
• 7.2.2 Real Price Projections for Canada = 49
• 7.2.3 Real Price Forecasts for the Provinces = 51
• 8. CONCLUSION = 54
• BIBLIOGRAPHY = 57
• ENDNOTES = 59
• APPENDIX 1 : HOUSING PRICE AND STOCK ADJUSTMENT TO A DEMOGRAPHIC SHOCK = A-1
• APPENDIX 2 : PROJECTIONS FOR THE 1998-2016 PERIOD = B-1
• APPENDIX 3 : DATA SOURCES = C-1
• APPENDIX 4 : GUIDE TO USING THE PROJECTION FILES = D-1