현장 분석 데이터 기반의 지속가능한 유연탄 수입국 평가 및 선정 연구: 다기준 의사결정(MCDM) 시나리오 분석을 중심으로 = Optimizing sustainable bituminous coal import portfolios using plant-specific measured data: A TOPSIS scenario analysis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As South Korea relies entirely on overseas imports for bituminous coal used in power generation, establishing a stable and environmentally sustainable procurement portfolio has become a core challenge for national energy security. This study identifies optimal import countries by comprehensively considering empirical measured data on import volume, proximate analysis, and ultimate analysis of bituminous coal actually used in five major domestic thermal power plants, together with marine transportation distance as an indicator of environmental sustainability and sovereign credit-based geopolitical risk as an indicator of energy security. The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method, was applied to analyze four scenarios: Standard, Environment Priority, Efficiency Priority, and Security Priority. The results show that Australia and Canada ranked highest in most scenarios, indicating that they are the most stable import options. In the Environment Priority scenario, however, Indonesia ranked first because of its geographical proximity. Notably, Russia, despite showing the highest apparent economic feasibility owing to its short transportation distance and excellent calorific value, ranked at the bottom (7th) in virtually all scenarios because of its extremely high geopolitical risk. These findings indicate that, beyond conventional procurement practices focused solely on cost and quality, the environmental burden of transportation and uncertainty in international affairs act as critical constraints on supply chain optimization. Based on empirical field data, this study proposes a realistic and diversified bituminous coal import strategy that can simultaneously enhance energy security and reduce carbon emissions, offering meaningful academic and policy implications.