인도네시아의 교역조건과 투자 관계

국문 초록 (Abstract)

인도네시아 경제의 특징은 자원의존적 경제구조를 가지고 있다는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 자원의존적 경제인 인도네시아에서 교역조건 개선이 투자에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤는지의 여부를 ARDL모형을 이용하여 분석한다. 1980-2010년 시계열자료를 분석한 결과, 인도네시아에 있어서 교역조건개선은 장기와 단기에 있어서 모두 투자에 긍정적인 영향을 주지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 수출재가 노동집약재인 경우 교역조건의 개선은 투자를 증가시키기 보다는 감소시킬 수 있다는 마추야마(Matsuyama 1988) 이론, 자원의존적인 국가에 있어서 교역조건의 개선은 경제에 부정적인 영향을 줄수 있다는 지대이론, 그리고 ‘네덜란드병(Dutch desease)’ 가설 등과 관련이 있는 것으로 보인다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As well known, Indonesia is a resource-dependent country. In this paper, It is tested that improvement of terms-of-trade positively affects the economy. Based on ARDL analysis, I found that terms-of-trade could not improve investment(fixed capital formation) of the country in the short run and in the long run. Those results can be understood in some economic theories such as Matsuyama`s theory(1988), rent-seeking theory, and hypothesis of ``Dutch desease``. On the other hand, it is found that economic growth is a major determinant of Indonesian investment.

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