국제체제의 역학에 대한 이해국제체제의 역학에 대한 이해 = 컴퓨터 시뮬레이션을 이용한 갈등모델과 복합모델의 비교

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study compares two models of international relations - the conflict model and the composite model - in the parttern of system endurance by experimenting numerous artificial settings on the computer screen. Many realist theorists have overestimated the weight of conflict and war in modeling international relaitons so that they have faced the longer-term emergence of power-driven empires. Upon the hypothesis that any integration of the liberal factor - such as trade - may lead us to a more optimistic scenario, this study tries to experiment both the old realist model and the new composite model. Cusack and Stoll's conflict model is replicated and a new composite model was created by adding Epstein and Axtell's trade module in order to experiment with both the realist and the liberal elements of world politics. With the computer programming method, this study hypothesizes and tests the propositions that the system endures longer in the composite model, and that the impacts of the variables in the composite model are bigger than those in the conflict model. The result shows that both hypotheses should not be underestimated in our modeling of international relations. As such, this study aims to provide a heuristic device for filling the theoretical and methodological gaps in modeling the system dynamics of international relations.