한국에서 평균기온 및 극한기온의 변화시점 분석

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 연구에서는 베이지안 변화시점 추정 방법을 이용하여 평균기온 및 극한기온의 변화시점을 분석하고자 하였다. 분석된 기후지수는 1960~2010년 동안의 연평균기온 연평균 최고기온 연평균 최저기온 한랭일일수 한랭야일수 온난일일수 온난야일수이다. 기온에서 변화시점은 연평균기온 연평균 최고기온 연평균 최저기온의 경우 1988년 한랭야일수 1987년 한랭일일수 1986~1988년 등 모두 1980년대 후반에 나타났으며 변화시점 이후 급진적인 평균값 변화를 보였다. 기온의 상위 극값인 온난야일수와 온난일일수에서는 변화시점이 나타나지 않았다. 연평균 최저기온과 한랭야일수의 경우 도시 지역과 비도시 지역 간에 변화시점 전과 후의 차이가 뚜렷한 반면에 연평균 최고기온과 한랭일일수의 경우 그 차이가 뚜렷하지 않았다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this paper the change-points of mean temperature and extreme temperature in the Republic of Korea are analyzed employing the BCPs (Bayesian Changing Points) estimation method. Annual indicators are analyzed: mean temperature mean maximum temperature mean minimum temperature cool days cool nights warm days and warm nights. In the results of BCPs applications the significant change-points are detected in 1988 (annual mean temperature mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature) 1987 (cool nights) and 1986-1988 (cool days). The means of the temperature indicators have been shown abrupt shift after the change-points. No change-points were detected in warm days and warm nights which indicated as upper extreme event of air temperature. In case of the mean minimum temperature and cool nights there were the significant differences before and after the change point in urban areas in comparison with non-urban. There were no significant differences in annual mean maximum temperature and cool days.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 요약
• Abstract
• 1. 문제제기 및 연구목적
• 2. 연구 자료 및 방법
• 3. 평균기온의 변화시점
• 4. 극한기온의 변화시점
• 5. 토의 및 고찰
• 6. 요약 및 결론
• 참고문헌

참고문헌 (Reference)

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