A random walk down Wall Street : including a life-cycle guide to personal investing

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• Preface = 13
• Acknowledgments from Earlier Editions = 17
• PART ONE STOCKS AND THEIR VALUE
• 1. Firm Foundations and Castles in the Air = 23
• What Is a Random Walk? = 24
• Investing as a Way of Life Today = 26
• Investing in Theory = 28
• The Firm-Foundation Theory = 29
• The Castle-in-the-Air Theory = 31
• How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted = 33
• 2. The Madness of Crowds = 35
• The Tulip-Bulb Craze = 36
• The South Sea Bubble = 39
• The Florida Real Estate Craze = 45
• Wall Street Lays an Egg = 46
• An Afterword = 53
• 3. Stock Valuation from the Sixties through the Nineties = 55
• The Sanity of Institutions = 55
• The Soaring Sixties = 57
• The New "New Era" : The Growth-Stock / New-Issue Craze = 57
• Synergy Generates Energy : The Conglomerate Boom = 61
• Performance Comes to the Market : The Bubble in Concept Stocks = 69
• The Sour Seventies = 73
• The Nifty Fifty = 73
• The Roaring Eighties = 76
• The Triumphant Return of New Issues = 76
• Concepts Conquer Again : The Biotechnology Bubble = 78
• The Chinese Romance with the Lycoris Plant = 80
• Some Other Bubbles of the 1980s = 81
• What Does It All Mean? = 85
• The Nervy Nineties = 85
• The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks = 85
• The Internet Craze of the Late 1990s = 90
• A Final Word = 94
• 4. The Firm-Foundation Theory of Stock Prices = 95
• The "Fundamental" Determinants of Stock Prices = 96
• Two Important Caveats = 103
• Testing the Rules = 106
• One More Caveat = 108
• What's Left of the Firm Foundation? = 111
• PART TWO HOW THE PROS PLAY THE BIGGEST GAME IN TOWN
• 5. Technical and Fundmental Analysis = 117
• Technical versus Fundmental Analysis = 118
• What Can Charts Tell You? = 119
• The Rationale for the Charting Method = 124
• Why Might Charting Fail to Work? = 126
• From Chartist to Technician = 127
• The Technique of Fundmental Analysis = 128
• Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work? = 132
• Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together = 134
• 6. Technical Analysis and the Random-Walk Theory = 138
• Holes in Their Shoes and Ambiguity in Their Forecasts = 138
• Is There Momentum in the Stock Market? = 140
• Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk? = 142
• Some More Elaborate Technical Systems = 145
• The Filter System = 146
• The Dow Theory = 146
• The Relative-Strength System = 147
• Price-Volume Systems = 148
• Reading Chart Patterns = 148
• Randomness Is Hard to Accept = 149
• A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You Lose Money = 150
• The Hemline Indicator = 151
• The Super Bowl Indicator = 153
• The Odd-Lot Theory = 153
• A Few More Systems = 155
• Technical Market Gurus = 155
• Why Are Technicians Still Hired? = 159
• Apprasing the Counterattack = 160
• Implications for Investors = 163
• 7. How Good Is Fundamental Analysis? = 165
• The Views from Wall Street and Academia = 166
• Are Security Analysts Fundamentally Clairvoyant? = 166
• Why the Crystal Ball Is Clouded = 170
• 1. The Influence of Random Events = 171
• 2. The Creation of Dubious Reported Earnings through "Creative" Accounting Procedures = 172
• 3. The Basic Incompetence of Many of the Analysots Themselves = 174
• 4. The Loss of the Best Analysts to the Sales Desk or to Portfolio Management = 177
• Do Security Analysts Pick Winners? The Performance of the Mutual Funds = 178
• Can Any Fundamental System Pick Winners? = 186
• The Verdict on Market Timing = 187
• The Semi-strong and Strong Forms of the Random-Walk Theory = 190
• The Middle of the Road : A Personal Viewpoint = 193
• PART THREE THE NEW INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY
• 8. A New Walking Shoe : Modern Portfolio Theory = 199
• The Role of Risk = 200
• Defining Risk : The Dispersion of Returns = 201
• Exhibit = 201
• Expected Return and Variance : Measures of Reward and Risk = 201
• Documenting Risk : A Long-Run Study = 204
• Reducing Risk : Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) = 206
• Diversification in Practice = 211
• 9. Reaping Reward by Increasing Risk = 220
• Beta and Systematic Risk = 221
• The Capital-Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) = 224
• Let's Look at the Record = 229
• An Appraisal of the Evidence = 232
• The Quant Quest for Better Measures of Risk : Arbitrage Pricing Theory = 234
• A Summing Up = 237
• 10. The Assault on the Random-Walk Theory : Is the Market Predictable after All? = 240
• Predictable Patterns in the Behavior of Stock Prices = 242
• 1. Stocks Do Sometimes Get on One-Way Streets = 243
• 2. But Eventually Stock Prices Do Change Direction and Hence Stockholder Returns Tend to Reverse Themselves = 244
• 3. Stocks Are Subject to Seasonal Moodiness, Especially at the Beginning of the Year and the End of the Week = 247
• Predictable Relationships between Certain "Fundamental" Variables and Future Stock Prices = 249
• 1. Smaller Is Often Better = 249
• 2. Stocks with Low Price-Earnings Multiples Outperform Those with High Multiples = 251
• 3. Stocks that Sell at Low Multiples of Their Book Values Tend to Produce Higher Subsequent Returns = 253
• 4. Higher Initial Dividends and Lower Price-Earnings Multiples Have Meant Higher Subsequent Returns = 254
• 5. The "Dogs of the Dow" Strategy = 258
• And the Winner Is... = 259
• The Performance of Professional Investors = 259
• Concluding Comments = 267
• Appendix : The Market Crash of October 1987 = 270
• PART FOUR A PRACTICAL GUIDE FOR RANDOM WALKERS AND OTHER INVESTORS
• 11. A Fitness Manual for Random Walkers = 277
• Exercise 1: Cover Thyself with Protection = 278
• Exercise 2 : Know Your Investment Objectives = 281
• Exercise 3: Dodge Uncle Sam Whenever You Can = 289
• Pension Plans and IRAs = 289
• Keogh Plans = 290
• Roth IRAs = 293
• Tax-Deferred Annuities = 294
• Exercise 4 : Be Competitive ; Let the Yield on Your Cash Reserve Keep Pace with Inflation = 295
• Money-Market Mutual Funds = 295
• Money-Market Deposit Accounts = 297
• Bank Certificates = 299
• Tax-Exempt Money-Market Funds = 300
• Exercise 5 : Investigate a Promenade through Bond Country = 301
• Zero-Coupon Bonds Can Generate Large Future Returns = 302
• No-Load Bond Funds Are Appropriate Vehicles for Individual Investors = 303
• Tax-Exempt Bonds Are Useful for High-Bracket Investors = 305
• Hit TIPS : Inflation Indexed Bonds = 307
• Should You Be a Bond-Market Junkie? = 309
• Exercise 6 : Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home ; Renting Leads to Flabby Investment Muscles = 310
• Exercise 7 : Beef Up with Real Estate Investment Trusts = 313
• Exercise 8 : Tiptoe through thd Investment Fields of Gold and Collectibles = 318
• Exercise 9 : Remember that Commission Costs Are Not Random ; Some Are Cheaper than Others = 322
• Exercise 10 : Diversify Your Investment Steps = 324
• A Final Checkup = 324
• 12. Handicapping the Financial Race : A Primer in Understanding and Projecting Returns from Stocks and Bonds? = 326
• What Determines the Returns from Stocks and Bonds? = 326
• Three Eras of Financial Market Returns = 331
• Era Ⅰ : The Age of Comfort = 333
• Era Ⅱ : The Age of Angst = 334
• Era Ⅲ : The Age of Exuberance = 340
• The Age of the Millennium = 342
• Appendix : Projecting Returns for Individual Stocks = 347
• 13. A Life-Cycle Guide to Investing = 351
• Four Asset Allocation Principles = 352
• 1. Risk and Reward Are Related = 352
• 2. Your Actual Risk in Stock and Bond Investing Depends on the Length of Time You Hold Your Investment = 353
• 3. Dollar-Cost Averaging Can Reduce the Risks of Investing in Stocks and Bonds = 356
• 4. The Risks You Can Afford to Take Depend on Your Total Financial Situation = 360
• Three Guidelines to Tailoring a Life-Cycle Investment Plan = 362
• 1. Specific Needs Require Dedicated Specific Assets = 363
• 2. Recognize Your Tolerance for Risk = 363
• 3. Persistent Savings in Regular Amounts, No Matter How Small, Pays Off = 367
• The Life-Cycle Investment Guide = 368
• 14. Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street = 372
• The No-Brainer Step : Investing in Index Funds = 373
• The Index Fund Solution : A SUMMARY = 375
• A Broader Definition of Indexing = 378
• A Specific Index Fund Portfolio = 382
• The Tax-Managed Index Fund = 383
• The Do-It-Yourself Step : Potentially Useful Stock-Picking Rules = 386
• The Substitute-Player Step : Hiring a Professional Wall-Street Walker = 391
• Risk Level = 394
• Unrealized Gains = 394
• Expense Ratios = 395
• The Morningstar Mutual-Fund Information Service = 395
• A Primer on Mutual-Fund Costs = 398
• Loading Fees = 399
• Expense Charges = 399
• Comparing Mutual-Fund Costs = 400
• The Malkiel Step = 401
• A Paradox = 405
• Some Last Reflections on Our Walk = 406
• A Random Walker's Address Book and Reference Guide to Mutual Funds = 409
• Bibliography = 429
• Index = 445