Measuring business cycles

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• PREFACE = ⅶ
• CHAPTER 1 WORKING PLANS = 3 - 22
• Ⅰ The Point of Departure = 3
• Ⅱ Questions Raised by the Definition = 5
• Ⅲ 'Inductive Verification' of Business－cycle Hypotheses = 8
• Ⅳ The Data Needed for Observing Cyclical Behavior = 10
• Ⅴ Requirements that Technique Must Meet = 11
• Ⅵ The Symbols Used in Observing Business Cycles = 14
• Ⅶ Range Covered by the Observations = 17
• Ⅷ The Program as a Whole = 21
• CHAPTER 2 PRELIMINARY SKETCH OF THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS = 23 - 36
• Ⅰ Basic Features of the Analysis = 23
• Ⅱ Reference Dates, Reference Cycles and Specific Cycles = 24
• Ⅲ Timing, Duration and Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 26
• Ⅳ Measures of Secular Movements = 28
• Ⅴ Cyclical Patterns = 29
• Ⅵ Measures of Conformity to Business Cycles = 31
• Ⅶ Averages and Average Deviations = 33
• Ⅷ Charts of Cyclical Patterns = 34
• Ⅸ Comparison with Customary Techniques = 36
• CHAPTER 3 PLAN OF TREATING SECULAR, SEASONAL AND RANDOM MOVEMENTS = 37 - 55
• Ⅰ The 'Cycle of Experience' as the Unit of Analysis = 37
• Ⅱ Limitations of the Technique = 40
• Ⅲ Need to Economize Effort = 41
• Ⅳ Treatment of Seasonal Variations = 43
• Appendix : Notes on the Elimination of Seasonal Variations' = 51
• CHAPTER 4 DATING SPECIFIC AND BUSINESS CYCLES = 56 - 114
• Ⅰ Dating Specific Cycles = 56
• Ⅱ Diffusion of Specific Cycles = 66
• Ⅲ Different Methods of Deriving a Reference Scale = 71
• Ⅳ A Tentative Schedule of Reference Dates = 76
• Ⅴ Difficulties in Setting Reference Dates Illustrated = 81
• Ⅵ Dependability of the Reference Dates = 94
• CHAPTER 5 THE BASIC MEASURES OF CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 115 - 202
• Ⅰ Positive and Inverted Specific Cycles = 115
• Ⅱ Timing of Specific Cycles = 116
• Ⅲ Duration of Specific Cycles = 128
• Ⅳ Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 131
• Ⅴ Measures of Secular Movements = 141
• Ⅵ Specific－cycle Patterns = 144
• Ⅶ Reference－cycle Patterns = 160
• Ⅷ Relation between Reference － and Specific－cycle Patterns = 170
• Ⅸ Conformity to Business Cycles : Behavior during Fixed Periods = 176
• Ⅹ Conformity to Business Cycles : Timing Differences Recognized = 185
• XI Analysis of Quarterly and Annual Data = 197
• CHAPTER 6 EFFECTS OF THE TIME UNIT ON CYCLICAL MEASURES = 203 - 269
• Ⅰ The Problem of This Chapter = 203
• Ⅱ Why the Time Unit Matters = 204
• Ⅲ The Direction of Movements in Time Series = 210
• Ⅳ The Number of Specific Cycles = 215
• Ⅴ Duration of Specific Cycles = 220
• Ⅵ Timing of Specific Cycles = 223
• Ⅶ Amplitude of Specific Cycles in Annual Data = 229
• Ⅷ Amplitude of Specific Cycles in Quarterly Data = 241
• Ⅸ The Secular Component of Specific Cycles = 245
• X Specific－cycle Patterns = 246
• XI Different Forms of Annual Data = 252
• XII Reference－cycle Measures = 261
• XIII Conclusions = 268
• CHAPTER 7 EFFECTS OF TREND ADJUSTMENTS ON CYCLICAL MEASURES = 270 - 309
• Ⅰ Materials Used in the Tests = 271
• Ⅱ The Number of Specific Cycles = 273
• Ⅲ Timing and Duration of Specific Cycles = 276
• Ⅳ Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 280
• Ⅴ Reference－cycle Measures = 294
• Ⅵ Variability of Cyclical Measures = 299
• Ⅶ The Time Unit and Trend Adjustments = 302
• Ⅷ Conclusions = 307
• CHAPTER 8 EFFECTS OF SMOOTHING ON CYCLICAL MEASURES = 310 - 369
• Ⅰ Range of the Tests = 310
• Ⅱ The Number of Specific Cycles = 312
• Ⅲ Timing and Duration of Specific Cycles = 316
• Ⅳ Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 326
• Ⅴ The Secular Component of Specific Cycles = 335
• Ⅵ Specific－cycle Patterns = 336
• Ⅶ Reference－cycle Patterns = 349
• Ⅷ Measures of Conformity to Business Cycles = 357
• Ⅸ Variability of Cyclical Measures = 361
• Ⅹ Uncertainties in Identifying Specific Cycles = 363
• XI Conclusions = 367
• CHAPTER 9 ROLE OF AVERAGES IN THE ANALYSIS = 370 - 383
• Ⅰ Variability of Cyclical Behavior = 370
• Ⅱ Function of Averages and Average Deviations = 380
• Ⅲ Problems Raised by Averages = 382
• CHAPTER 10 SECULAR AND DISCONTINUOUS CHANGES IN CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 384 - 417
• Ⅰ Duration and Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 384
• Ⅱ Reference－cycle Patterns = 393
• Ⅲ Other Cyclical Measures = 398
• Ⅳ Duration and Amplitude of Business Cycles = 401
• Ⅴ Business Cycles and Economic Stages = 403
• Ⅵ Business Cycles before and after 1914 = 406
• Ⅶ Conclusions from Tests = 412
• Ⅷ Preparation for Later Work = 413
• CHAPTER 11 CYCLICAL CHANGES IN CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 418 - 465
• Ⅰ Long Cycles Marked Off by Long Waves in Building = 418
• Ⅱ Long Cycles as Deviations from Trends = 427
• Ⅲ Long Cycles Marked Off by Long Waves in Prices = 431
• Ⅳ Long Cycles as Triplets of Business Cycles = 440
• Ⅴ Long Cycles Marked Off by Booms = 448
• Ⅵ Long Cycles Marked Off by Severe Depressions = 455
• Ⅶ Conclusions and Plans for Later Work = 464
• CHAPTER 12 STABLE AND IRREGULAR FEATURES OF CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 466 - 508
• Ⅰ Individual Features of Successive Cycles = 466
• Ⅱ Stable Features of Successive Cycles = 474
• Ⅲ Influence of Extreme Items on Averages = 491
• Ⅳ Causal Interpretation of Averages = 503
• Ⅴ Test of Consilience among the Results = 506
• APPENDICES
• A Division of Reference Cycles into Stages = 509
• B Some Supporting Data = 517
• C Sources of Data = 540
• INDEX = 551
• List of Tables
• Table
• 1 Series Classified According to the Process Represented, Country, and the Time Unit = 20
• 2 Periods Covered by American and Foreign Series = 20
• 3 Number of Business Cycles Covered by American and Foreign Series = 21
• 4 Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1933 = 25
• 5 Sample of Table S1 : Timing and Duration of Specific Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1932 = 26
• 6 Sample of Table S2 : Amplitude of Specific Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1932 = 27
• 7 Sample of Table S3 : Secular Movements, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1932 = 28
• 8 Sample of Table S4 : Specific－cycle Patterns, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1932 = 29
• 9 Sample of Table S5 : Rate of Change from Stage to Stage of Specific Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1932 = 30
• 10 Sample of Table R1 : Reference－cycle Patterns, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1933 = 30
• 11 Sample of Table R2 : Rate of Change from Stage to Stage of Reference Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1933 = 31
• 12 Sample of Table R3 : Conformity to Business Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1933 = 32
• 13 Bituminous Coal Production, United States, 1905 － 1939 = 59
• 14 Chronology of Specific Cycles in Employment, Ten Manufacturing Industries, United States, 1919 － 1938 = 68
• 15 Dates of Cyclical Peaks and Troughs, Successive Versions of Three Indexes of 'Industrial Production', United States, 1919 － 1938 = 75
• 16 Reference Dates and Durations of Business Cycles in Four Countries = 78
• 17 Number of Monthly or Quarterly American Series Available at Decennial Dates since 1860 = 82
• 18 Short－term Fluctuations around the Cyclical Turns of 1937 and 1938, 23 American Series = 86
• 19 Sequence of Cyclical Turns in the 1937 Recession and the 1938 Revival, 40 American Series = 88
• 20 Production, Employment and Prices in Three Countries, 1914 － 1918 = 91