수직적 산업내무역과 무역수지의 환율탄력성—한국 제조업을 중심으로— = Vertical Intra-industry Trade and Exchange Rate Elasticity of Trade Balance -Case of Korea’s Manufacturing Sector -

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper aims to examine whether international production fragmentation has provoked weakening the effect of exchange rate change on trade balance of eleven major product categories in Korea’s manufacturing by adopting VIIT index as a proxy for international production fragmentation, contrary to the previous researches exploiting IIT index. It is confirmed that VIIT secures absolutely high portion of IIT in Korea’s manufacturing. It is no surprise, accordingly, that selection of proxy between IIT index and VIIT may not end up with serious difference in empirical results, as long as Korea’s manufacturing is concerned. In fact, our empirical findings turn out to be compatible with that prediction. More importantly, it reveals that proliferation of international production fragmentation has induced diminishing the effect of exchange rate change on trade balance of all product categories in Korea’s manufacturing except nonferrous metals and precision instruments. In addition, other determinants of trade balance such as relative GDP, real exchange rate, and import-weighted distance have proved to mostly go along with theoretical expectation in top four categories of trade volume in Korea’s manufacturing such as chemistry, machinery, electrical and electronic equipments, and transportation equipments. This final finding may be interpreted as suggesting that targeting sizable industry, wherever possible, may be important for similar future research.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 정철, "한국의 교역구조와 경상수지 변동요인 분석" 대외경제정책연구원 2008

2 이한영, "한국 자동차산업 산업내무역의 특성 및 결정요인 분석 : 품질차이, FDI 및 무역불균형을 중심으로" 한국국제통상학회 20 (20): 61-92, 2015

3 금융연구원, "최근 환율과 무역수지의 관계 약화와 시사점" 25 (25): 12-13, 2016

4 이한영, "국가 간 규제 및 IT활용 격차의 서비스무역에 대한 영향" 한국관세학회 14 (14): 247-264, 2013

5 Greenaway, D., "Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade : A Cross Industry Analysis for The United Kingdom" 105 (105): 1505-1518, 1995

6 Wakasugi, R., "Vertical Intra-Industry Trade and Economic Integration in East Asia" 6 (6): 26-36, 2007

7 Cushman, D. O., "U.S. Bilateral Trade Equations: Forecasts and Structural Stability" 22 (22): 1093-1102, 1990

8 Arndt, S. W., "Trade, Production Networks and the Exchange Rate" 4 (4): 11-38, 2007

9 Oguro, Y., "Trade Sensitivity to Exchange Rates in the Context of Intra-Industry Trade" IMF 2008

10 Nilsson, L., "Trade Integration and the EU Economic Membership Criteria" 16 (16): 807-827, 2000

11 Hooper, P., "Trade Elasticities for G-7 Countries" Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 1998

12 Baldwin, R. E., "Towards an Integrated Europe" Centre for Economic Policy Research 1994

13 Subramanian, A., "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly" 72 (72): 151-175, 2007

14 Kharroubi, E., "The Trade Balance and the Real Exchange Rate" 2011 : 33-42, 2011

15 Rose, A. K., "The Role of Exchange Rates in a Popular Model of International Trade: Does the ‘’Marshall-Lerner’’ Condition Hold?" 30 (30): 301-316, 1991

16 D'iaz Mora, C., "The Role of Comparative Advantage in Trade within Industries: A Panel Data Approach for the European Union" 138 (138): 291-316, 2002

17 Nadenichek, J., "The Japan-US Trade Imbalance: A Real Business Cycle Perspective" 12 (12): 255-271, 2000

18 Baier, S. L., "The Growth of World Trade: Tariffs, Transport Costs, and Income Similarity" 53 (53): 1-27, 2001

19 Kalbasi, H., "The Gravity Model and Global Trade Flows" 2001

20 Wu, P. C., "Nonlinear Bilateral Trade Balance-fundamentals Nexus: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach" 27 : 318-329, 2013

21 Magee, C. S., "New Measures of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion" 75 (75): 349-362, 2008

22 Helpman, E., "Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy" MIT Press 1985

23 Crespo, N., "Intra-Industry Trade by Types: What Can We Learn from Portuguese Data?" 140 (140): 52-79, 2004

24 Chinn, M. D., "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again" 7 (7): 451-469, 2004

25 Houthakker, H. S., "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade" 51 (51): 111-125, 1969

26 Pittiglio, R., "Horizontal and Vertical Intra-industry Trade: An Emprirical Test of the ‘Homogeneity Hypothesis’" 35 (35): 919-945, 2012

27 Hummels, D., "Have International Transportation Costs Declined?" University of Chicago 1999

28 Anderson, J. E., "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle" 93 (93): 170-192, 2003

29 Baldwin, R., "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equation" NBER 2006

30 OECD, "Global Value Chains: Challenges, Opportunities and Implications for Policy" 2014

31 Ando, M., "Fragmentation and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade in East Asia" 17 (17): 257-281, 2006

32 Abd-el-Rahman, K., "Firms’ Competitive and National Comparative Advantages as Joint Determinants of Trade Composition" 127 (127): 83-97, 1991

33 Rose, A. K., "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance: Some Evidence from Developing Countries" 34 (34): 271-275, 1990

34 Bahmani-Oskooee, M., "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Japan’s Bilateral Trade Flows" 16 (16): 1-15, 2004

35 Chinn, M. D., "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined" 141 (141): 460-485, 2005

36 Gullstrand, J., "Does the Measurement of Intra-industry Trade Matter?" 138 (138): 317-339, 2002

37 Ghosh, A., "Cross-border Production Sharing and Exchange-rate Sensitivity of Mexico’s Trade Balance" 22 (22): 281-297, 2013

38 Greenaway, D., "Country-specific Factors and Pattern or Horizontal and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade in the UK" 130 (130): 77-100, 1994

39 Baier, S. L., "Bonus vetus OLS: A Simple Method for Approximating International Trade-cost Effects using the Gravity Equation" 77 (77): 77-85, 2009

40 Eaton, J., "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns" 8 (8): 478-510, 1994

41 Marquez, J., "Bilateral Trade Elasticities" 72 (72): 70-77, 1990

42 Bahmani-Oskooee, M., "Bilateral J-Curve Between U.S. and Her Trading Partners" 135 (135): 156-165, 1999

43 Anderson, J. E., "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation" 69 (69): 106-116, 1979

44 Newey, W. K., "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix" 55 (55): 703-708, 1987

45 Khan, Z. S., "A Model of Bilateral Trade Balance: Extensions and Empirical Tests" 40 (40): 377-391, 2010

46 Genç, M., "A Gravity Model of Barriers to Trade in New Zealand" New Zealand Treasury 2014

47 Papazoglou, C., "A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Pathdependency in Integration" 29 (29): 1077-1089, 2006