Economy President?

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Presidential approval indicates public evaluation of the president`s job performance and reflects public satisfaction level on the current administration. Therefore, high presidential approval is a driving force for good governance. The primary purpose of this paper is to explore determinants of Myung-bak Lee`s presidential approval by applying a political-economic model that includes economic and non-economic variables. The findings can be summarized as follows: the economy matters for presidential approval; however, political determinants tend to have stronger influence than economic determinants on presidential approval in Korea. But one must be careful; Lee`s presidential approval that only depends on political factors such as party identification will have limitations in further improving the rate. The results of this research suggest that when the president obtains visible economic performance recognizable to the public, presidential approval will substantially increase; Then, President Lee could be recognized as the "Economy President."

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 손호중, "정부신뢰의 영향요인에 관한 연구: 부안군 원전수거물처리장 입지사례를 중심으로" 한국행정학회 39 (39): 87-113, 2005

2 가상준, "임기 중 클린턴대통령의 업무수행에 대한 유권자들의 평가: 경제와 도덕성을 중심으로" 한국정치학회 38 (38): 495-514, 2004

3 김장수, "선거연구와 패널 여론조사: 2006년 지방선거를 중심으로" 한국조사연구학회 8 (8): 81-104, 2007

4 가상준, "대통령지지율과 2004년 대통령선거:1952-2000년 선거결과를 중심으로" 한국국제정치학회 45 (45): 153-174, 2005

5 조기숙, "대통령의 리더십과 정부신뢰: 노무현 대통령 사례를 중심으로" 극동문제연구소 23 (23): 61-92, 2007

6 이곤수, "대통령 국정운영 지지의 영향요인 분석: 취임1년차 이명박 대통령에 대한 국민여론조사를 중심으로" 한국행정연구소 47 (47): 105-137, 2009

7 Rudolph, Thomas, "Who's Responsible for the Economy? The Formation and Consequences of Responsibility Attributions" 47 (47): 698-713, 2003

8 Kang, Won-Taek, "Where is 386 Generation?: Ideology and Generation in 2007 Presidential Election and 2008 General Election. in: Changing Korean Electorates 3" East Asia Institute 2009

9 Rattinger, Hans, "Unemployment and Elections in West Germany. in: Economic and Politics: The Calculus of Support" University of Michigan Press 1991

10 Kiewiet, DR., "Twenty-five Years After Kramer: An Assessment of Economic Retrospective Voting Based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment" 10 (10): 19-248, 1998

11 Park, Tong-Hee, "Trust in Korean Government and Market Economy" 2000

12 Lee, Sook-Jong, "Trust in Government and Governance" 9 (9): 143-172, 2006

13 Brace, P., "The structure of presidential approval: constraints within and across presidencies" 53 : 993-1017, 1991

14 Conover, Pamela J., "The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecast" 31 : 559-583, 1987

15 Burden, Barry C., "The International Economy and Presidential Approval" 67 : 555-578, 2003

16 Park, Chong-Min, "The Impact of Governmental Performance on Trust in Government" 25 (25): 291-305, 1991

17 Anderson, Christopher J., "The End of Economic Voting? Contingency Dilemmas and the Limits of Democratic Accountability" 10 : 271-296, 2007

18 Kramer, G., "The Ecological Fallacy Revised" 77 : 92-111, 1983

19 Weisberg, Herbert, "The Demographics of New Voting Gap: Marital Difference in American Voting" 51 : 335-343, 1987

20 Lee, Si Won, "The Analyzing of Factors Influencing Trust in Government: Based on Trust in Government Research of the 6th Korean Government" Seoul National University 1993

21 Kinder, Donald, "Sociotropic Politics" 65 : 1981

22 Kramer, G., "Short-term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior 1896-1964" 65 : 131-145, 1971

23 Lee, Jong-Sik, "Research on Effective Governance" 5 (5): 1-23, 2007

24 Stimson, James A., "Public Support for American Presidents: A Cyclical Model" 40 : 1-21, 1976

25 Holsti, Ole R., "Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy" University of Michigan Press 1996

26 EAI, "Public Briefing, 67" East Asia Institute 2009

27 Norpoth, Helmut, "Presidents and the Prospective Voter" 58 (58): 776-792, 1996

28 Bartel, Larry M., "Presidential Vote Models: A Recount" 34 (34): 2001

29 Mueller, John E., "President Popularity from Truman to Johnson" 64 (64): 18-34, 1970

30 MacKuen, Michael B., "Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity" 27 (27): 165-192, 1983

31 Newman, Brian, "Personal Integrity and Presidential Approval: The Effects of Integrity Assessments, 1980-2000" 67 (67): 335-367, 2003

32 Lee, Hyeon-Woo, "Personal Economic Voting in the U.S. Revisited: Using a Structural Analysis with Latent Variables" 33 (33): 241-257, 1999

33 MacKuen, Michael B., "Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy" 53 : 69-105, 1992

34 Kang, Won-Taek, "Have the Regionalism Changed?. in: Changing Korean Electorates 2: 2007 Korean Presidential Election" East Asia Institute 2008

35 Kim, Wook, "Generation, Ideology, and Impact of Values in 16th General Election. in: Election in Korea V" Oreum 2006

36 Gilens, Martin, "Gender and Support for Reagan: A Comprehensive Model of Presidential Approval" 32 (32): 19-49, 1988

37 Aldrich, John H., "Foreign Affair and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidate ‘Waltz before a Blind Audience?’" 83 : 123-141, 1989

38 Yang, Kun-Mo, "Factors Influencing Candidates of Presidential Election: Comparison of 17th Presidential Election Candidates based on Trust Theory" 2008

39 Kernell, Samuel, "Explaining Presidential Popularity" 72 (72): 506-522, 1978

40 Edward, George C. Ⅲ., "Explaining Presidential Approval: The Significance of Issue Salience" 39 (39): 108-134, 1995

41 Kang, Won-Taek, "Electoral Politics in South Korea: Ideology, Region, Generation and Media" Purengil 2003

42 Kwon, Hyeok-Yong, "Effect of Economy on Election: Economic Election. in: Changing Korean Electorates 3" East Asia Institute 2009

43 Lee, Jae-Chul, "Economic Voting in the 17th Presidential Election: Economic Perception and Voting Behavior" 1 : 111-136, 2008

44 Park, Kyoung-San, "Economic Voting in the 14th Presidential Election in Korea" 27 (27): 185-208, 1993

45 Lee, Hyeon-Woo, "Economic Voting in Korea. in: Election in Korea II" Purengil 1998

46 Kwon, Hyeok-Yong, "Economic Voting in 2007 Presidential Election. in: Changing Korean Electorates 2: 2007 Korean Presidential Election" East Asia Institute 2008

47 Cohen, Jeffrey E., "Economic Perceptions and Executive Approval in Comparative Perspective" 26 (26): 27-43, 2004

48 Kinder, Donald, "Economic Grievances and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Discontents and Collective Judgments in Congressional voting" 23 : 495-527, 1979

49 Jeong, Han-Wool, "Economic Election Possible in Korea?. in: Changing Korean Electorates: The 2006 Korean Local Elections" East Asia Institute 2007

50 Lewis-Beck, Michael, "Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes" 3 : 183-219, 2000

51 Kirchgaessner, Gehard, "Economic Conditions and Popularity of West German Parties: Before and After the 1982 Government Change. in: Economic and Politics: The Calculus of Support" University of Michigan Press 1991

52 Kim, Young-Tae, "Economic Conditions and Popularity of Political Parties and President: After the 17th Presidential Election in Korea" 4 (4): 149-172, 2005

53 Druckman, James N., "Does Presidential Rhetoric Matter? Priming and Presidential Approval" 34 (34): 755-778, 2004

54 Nickelsburg, Michael, "Commander in Chief or Chief Economist: The President in the Eye of the Public" 19 : 313-332, 2000

55 Gomez, B. T., "Cognitive Heterogeneity and Economic Voting: A Comparative Analysis of Four Democratic Electorates" 50 : 127-145, 2006

56 Mayer, R. C., "An Integrative Model of Organizational Trust" 20 : 709-734, 1995

57 Erikson, Robert, "American Public Opinion: Its Origins, Contents, and Impact" Pearson Longman 2005

58 EAI and Hankook Research, "A Survey of Public Recognitionon Middle Class in Korea" East Asia Institute 2009

59 Hwang, Ah-Ran, "A Multiple Indicators Approach of Partisan Attitudes: An Analysis of the Effect of Partisanship on Voters’ Choice in the 17th Presidential Election in Korea" 1 : 86-110, 2008

60 Lee, Nae-Young, "5.31 Local Election and Reorganizing Party Support. in: Changing Korean Electorates" East Asia Institute 2007

61 Jo, Sung-Dae, "4/15 General Election and Structure of Conflict in Korea: Regionalism and Conflict" 2004

62 Kim, Min-Jun, "2007 Presidential Election and Evolution of Political Cracks. in: Changing Korean Electorates 2: 2007 Korean Presidential Election" East Asia Institute 2008