Does oil price rise necessarily reduce export? : Focused on Korean exports

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper analyzes the effects of oil price change on the value of exports of Korea.
The general convention is that the effect of oil price raise is leading to reducing the exports. The change in oil price is related to the change of production costs as well as changes in macroeconomic indices, such as price level and interest rate. Those changes in production costs and macroeconomic indices may affect the performance of exports.
However, we found that the oil price increase is not necessarily reducing the exports based on Korean industrial exports data. Rather, in our analysis, the rise of oil price lowers the real interest rate and thus the increase in oil price leads to an increase in the value of Korean exports. It is also found that oil price affects the export directly and indirectly through the real interest rate.

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