Pursuing green transition only when we can afford it? The impact of growth pressure on carbon intensity through R&D, emissions trading systems, and energy security

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As more than 90 countries have committed to net-zero emissions, the path toward sustained carbon reduction remains constrained by structural and political challenges. Free-riding incentives and public pressure to prioritize immediate economic growth often undermine decarbonization efforts. This study investigates how growth pressure (GP), measured by economic growth rates, unemployment levels, and fiscal deficits, affects carbon intensity. The analysis uses panel data from 73 countries from 1995 to 2019. A composite GP index was constructed using Z-score standardization and validated through principal component analysis (PCA). The findings reveal several key insights. First, heightened GP arising from adverse economic conditions is significantly associated with increased carbon intensity. Second, GP weakens the carbon-reducing effect of R&D investment by redirecting innovation priorities toward short-term economic and employment gains at the expense of long-term green technologies. Third, the effectiveness of emissions trading systems (ETSs) in lowering carbon intensity diminishes under elevated GP. Finally, the adverse impact of GP on carbon intensity is amplified in countries with poor energy security, reflecting greater vulnerability in their energy infrastructure. These results reveal a fundamental political economy dilemma: the imperative of economic growth frequently overshadows climate commitments. They suggest that maintaining balanced economic expansion is essential for sustaining investment and progress toward net-zero goals. This study contributes to the literature by systematically linking macroeconomic pressures to the fragility of green transition pathways.
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