한국형발사체 비행 신뢰도 추정 방법

국문 초록 (Abstract)

베이지안 신뢰도 분석은 우주발사체의 비행 신뢰도 추정에 광범위하게 적용되고 있다. 한국형발사체의 비행 신뢰도 추정을 위해서, 베이지안 추론에 기반한 유즈노예의 신뢰도 추정 방법을 적용한다. 베이지안 접근법을 통해서 비행 신뢰도 추정에 지상에서의 개발시험과 인증시험으로부터 확인된 정보를 사전정보로 포함시킬 수 있고, 비행 실패 이후 취해진 교정조치 결과를 반영할 수 있다. 이항분포를 갖는 비행 신뢰도의 경우, 베타 확률 분포가 켤레 사전 분포로 적용될 수 있다. 끝으로 본 논문에서 제안된 방법론을 실제 우주발사체 비행 시험을 통해 확인된 데이터에 적용하여 그 결과를 확인한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Bayesian reliability analysis has been widely applied to flight reliability estimations of space launch vehicles. To estimate the flight reliability of the KSLV-II, the methodology of Yuzhnoye based on Bayesian inference is used. Owing to the adoption of the Bayesian approach, the flight reliability estimate can contain a priori information from ground development and qualification tests as well as reflect corrective actions implemented after failure. For flight reliability estimation with a binomial distribution, the beta probability distribution was used as the conjugate prior distribution. Finally, an illustrative example is described by applying the proposed methodology to the case of a space launch vehicle.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 초록
• Abstract
• 1. 서론
• 2. 베이지안 통계적 추론 방법에 대한 수학적 배경
• 3. 발사체 비행 신뢰도 추정
• 4. 발사체 비행 신뢰도 추정 적용
• 5. 발사체 비행 신뢰도 추정 방법 비교
• 6. 결론
• 참고문헌(References)

참고문헌 (Reference)

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