노인장기요양보험 이용자 및 급여비 중장기 추계 = Projection of demand and expenditure for services under long-term care insurance for the elderly in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Korea`s national long-term care insurance (LTCI) was introduced in 2008, aiming to meet the increasing long-term care (LTC) needs of an aging population. The purpose of this study is to project demand and expenditure for services under LTCI to 2050 as well as develop a projection model. The analytic dataset was developed by merging 2006 population projection data, 2010 health insurance claims data, 2010 LTCI claims data and care needs certification data. The data includes a 5% random sample of all people aged 65 or older. Guided by the U.K. PSSRU`s projection model of LTC demand, the projection model of this study was a cell-based model that included a total of 160 cells categorized by sex, age, having one or more chronic conditions, living arrangement, and income. The number of service users was projected by multiplying the estimated probabilities of home and institutional LTC utilization among the population in each cell by the projected population. Total expenditure was projected by multiplying the projected number of users by the average service expenditure in 2010. Sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were conducted. The findings show service users under LTCI will increase from 5.79% of Korean people aged 65 or older in 2010 to 9.29% in 2050. The projected expenditure in 2050 ranges from 0.37% to 0.97% of GDP. Policy implications as well as a comparison of study findings with existing studies are discussed.

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