상대국 경제발전 단계에 따른 수출과 해외직접투자 간 관계 분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The main purpose of this study is to ascertain whether export or FDI will bring about an increase or decrease in export and FDI and to contribute an assessment of exports and FDI. In this study monthly data on exports and FDI was used; this included data for both developed countries and developing countries. In order to accomplish this, analysis methodologies used in this paper are: ADF unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, Granger's causality test and Vector error correction model (VECM). The VECM specification restricts the long-run behavior of the endogenous variables to converge to their cointegrating relationships while allowing a wide range of short-run dynamics.
The result of this analysis leads to the following conclusions. Firstly, there exists causality between exports and FDI. This means that strategic execution of exports lead to FDI and this result can not explained by manufacturing industry. Secondly, analysis through the VECM Model showed some difference between developed countries and developing countries. This analysis reveals, exports lead to an increase in FDI for developing countries, unlike what happens in developing countries, in the case of developed countries show a decreased effect. Finally, it is anticipated that the exports and FDI of Korea are related to each other. In the future by accumulating data it may be possible to show that they influence each other according to strategic execution of each. It will also be possible to gain a more accurate analysis with increased data.

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