Expert judgement in risk and decision analysis

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• 1 Introduction and Overview of Structured Expert Judgement / Simon French ; Anca M Hanea ; Tim Bedford ; Gabriela F Nane = 1
• Part I Current Research
• 2 Recent Advances in the Elicitation of Uncertainty Distributions from Experts for Multinomial Probabilities / Kevin J Wilson ; Fadlalla G Elfadaly ; Paul H Garthwaite ; Jeremy E Oakley = 19
• 3 Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesis / Deniz Marti ; Thomas A Mazzuchi ; Roger M Cooke = 53
• 4 Customized Structural Elicitation / Rachel L Wilkerson ; Jim Q Smith = 83
• 5 Bayesian Modelling of Dependence Between Experts : Some Comparisons with Cooke’s Classical Model / David Hartley ; Simon French = 115
• 6 Three-Point Lifetime Distribution Elicitation for Maintenance Optimization in a Bayesian Context / J René van Dorp ; Thomas A Mazzuchi = 147
• 7 Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structured Expert Judgement Modelling / David Ríos Insua ; David Banks ; Jesús Ríos ; Jorge González-Ortega = 179
• Part II Cooke and the Classical Model
• 8 A Number of Things / Roger M Cooke = 199
• 9 The Classical Model : The Early Years / Simon French = 215
• 10 An In-Depth Perspective on the Classical Model / Anca M Hanea ; Gabriela F Nane = 225
• 11 Building on Foundations : An Interview with Roger Cooke / Gabriela F Nane ; Anca M Hanea = 257
• Part III Process, Procedures and Education
• 12 Scientific Advice : A Personal Perspective in Dealing with Uncertainty An Interview with Prof Dame Anne Glover, in Conversation with Tim Bedford / Anne Glover ; Tim Bedford = 273
• 13 Characteristics of a Process for Subjective Probability Elicitation / John Quigley ; Lesley Walls = 287
• 14 Developing a Training Course in Structured Expert Judgement / Philip Bonanno ; Abigail Colson ; Simon French = 319
• 15 Expert Judgement for Geological Hazards in New Zealand / Annemarie Christophersen ; Matthew C Gerstenberger = 345
• 16 Using the Classical Model for Source Attribution of Pathogen-Caused Illnesses / Elizabeth Beshearse ; Gabriela F Nane ; Arie H Havelaar = 373
• Part IV Applications
• 17 Reminiscences of a Classical Model Expert Elicitation Facilitator / Willy Aspinall = 389
• 18 Dealing with Imperfect Elicitation Results / Rens van de Schoot ; Elian Griffioen ; Sonja D Winter = 401
• 19 Structured Expert Judgement for Decisions on Medicines Policy and Management / Patricia Vella Bonanno ; Alec Morton ; Brian Godman = 419
• 20 Structured Expert Judgement Issues in a Supply Chain Cyber Risk Management System / Alberto Torres-Barrán ; Alberto Redondo ; David Rios Insua ; Jordi Domingo ; Fabrizio Ruggeri = 441
• 21 Structured Expert Judgement in Adversarial Risk Assessment : An Application of the Classical Model for Assessing Geo-Political Risk in the Insurance Underwriting Industry / Christoph Werner ; Raveem Ismail = 459
• 22 Expert Judgement in Terrorism Risk Assessment / Gordon Woo = 485
• 23 Decision-Making in Early Internationalization : A Structured Expert Judgement Approach / Michał Zdziarski ; Gabriela F Nane ; Grzegorz Król ; Katarzyna Kowalczyk ; Anna O Kuźmińska = 503