전망이론과 민군관계: 무력사용을 중심으로

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The heinous Axe Murder crime on August 18 in 1976 at JSA (Joint Security Area) within DMZ (demilitarized zone) was the first murder committed by North Korea since the signing of Armistice Agreement in 1953. Whereas this incident was finalized by merely cutting the poplar tree, the U.S. is responding to the murder of its soldiers in Iran, Iraq, Somalia and elsewhere by swift and resolute retaliatory measures. From the perspective of the Civil-Military Relations (CMR), in the course of resolving the Axe Murder case, it appears that Henry Kissinger, then Secretary of State as well as the top diplomat, represented the civilian group in the absence of President Ford, while Richard G. Stilwell, the Commander of CINCUNC-CFC-USFK and active military officer, represented the military establishment during the time of Chief of Joint Chiefs of Staff’s absence. According to the conventional wisdom, within the context of CMR, the civilian elites are expected to play a role of suppressing the trigger-happy tendencies displayed by the military officers. Case in point would be the showdown between Prussia’s Otto von Bismarck and Helmut von Moltke. ‘Iron Chancellor’ Bismark tried his utmost in order to tamp down the zeal of the Prussian Army’s Chief of Staff, who demanded a victorious military parade through the downtown of Vienna right after the stunning victory at the Austro-Prussian War.
The relation between Kissinger and Stilwell was totally opposite to that of Bismark-Moltke case. While Kissinger revealed that he was willing to take risks for retaliatory measures against North Koreans by showing hostilities toward them, Stilwell who was at the virtual end of more than four-decade of military career took pains to focus on myopic goal of cutting ‘the damn tree’ and on other damage control measures. Therefore, in one sense, whereas Kissinger played the role of military commander, Stilwell played the role of career diplomat. Prospect Theory provides us with an insightful clue as to the dramatic role-reversal between them.
The purpose of this study is, by applying Prospect Theory, to enhance the understanding and explanatory power by means of examining the potential conflictual relations between the civil-military elites and other related issues revolving around ‘the use of force’ issue with the focus on the case study of Panmunjom Axe Murder Incident. Followed by the Introduction, the Chapter 2 will examine relevant basic concepts of Prospect Theory and explore mutually reinforcing relations between Prospect Theory and CMR. The Chapter 3 will take up the work of case study regarding the Axe Murder Incident in 1976. And finally the Chapter 4 will summarize main findings of the study and delve into the Prospect Theory’s limitations and other theoretical issues to be further refined.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• ABSTRACT
• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 전망이론과 민군관계
• Ⅲ. 1976년 판문점 도끼만행 사건
• Ⅳ. 결론 및 함의
• 〈참고문헌〉

참고문헌 (Reference)

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