기초연금이 고령자의 소득에 미치는 영향 -성향점수매칭(PSM) 이중차이(DID)를 활용한 분석- = The Effect of Basit Pension on the Economic Status of Older People: Using Proponsity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences Method

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines how effective the basic pension scheme, implemented in July 2014, has been by applying a simulation method. First, we identified the status of entitlement given to individual senior citizens and calculated the monthly basic pension income of the identified pensioners based on the data from the Korea Welfare Panel Study (KoWePS). This was followed by a comparison of income changes between the beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries with an aim to analyze how the scheme contributed to economic lives of senior citizens. The methods of analysis include Difference-in-Difference (DID) and Difference-in-Difference-in-Differences (DDD). Particularly, the latter was applied to identify the interaction mechanism between the characteristics of older people and the basic pension system. They were combined with the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to reduce the selection bias and to secure the similarity between both groups. First, DID results consider gender, age and household are significant while their DDD results are not discarded. Second, in terms of the DID results based on the analysis of the factors related to the income and expenses of older people, the basic pension is found effective for all groups but for the group whose monthly average expense is lower than 900,000 KRW. However, the significant result from DDD was only estimated from the ordinary income expense factor. Third, both national pension and national basic living security payment are effective for the non beneficiary group of the basic pension while they are not with that of the beneficiary group. It supports those discussions which has been continuing regarding their combinations from the institutional level and we are expecting further examinations in the future. Also, their estimates applying DDD approach are not significant, resulting in a conclusion that correlations of the three schemes were not statistically significant. Based on the results, all three factors, individual and household characteristics of older people are not significantly related to the basic pension scheme. Meanwhile, income and purchasing power of individual older people are the only factors that are systemically related to the basic pension. Moreover, the final result supports the needs to review and improve effectiveness of the basic pension scheme and the whole old-age income security systems, raising a concern of mass production of welfare contradictions where welfare benefits are concentrated to a specific group. The result and implication of this study will be able to be discussed in more detail based on the empirical and logical reasons after the future system implementation. Furthermore, it is required to understand the characteristics and the following needs of the older people from the institutional level, in order to improve effectiveness and sustainability of the basic pension system and further improve the soundness of the entire social security system.

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