보유세 부담의 전가: 서울지역 전세가격을 중심으로 = Property Tax Incidence in the Rental Market: Evidence from Jeonse Prices in Seoul

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study empirically examines whether the increase in property tax burden resulting from the rise in officially assessed housing prices is shifted to tenants through higher rental prices in the Seoul housing market. Using apartment-level transaction data, we construct a short-term panel dataset to control for potential endogeneity and estimate the causal relationship between changes in official housing prices and jeonse (lump-sum deposit lease) prices. The empirical results show that a 10 percentage point increase in the officially assessed housing price leads to approximately a 1.3 percent increase in jeonse prices. This finding suggests that a portion of the property tax burden is shifted from homeowners to tenants through the rental market. However, the magnitude of the tax shifting appears limited, as the analysis period corresponds to a market environment relatively favorable to tenants. The results imply that property tax policies may affect not only homeowners but also tenants’ housing costs, highlighting the importance of considering potential tax incidence on renters when designing housing tax policies.