미시적, 거시적 관점에서 본 2006 미국 중간선거 = The 2006 U.S. midterm election: National Event v. Local Event

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In general, the incumbent party loses a lot of House seats in the U.S. mid-term election. However, in 1998 and 2002 the incumbent party didn`t lose any seat. Instead, it was successful in securing additional seats. Since these results are different from the general characteristic of the mid-term election, scholars paid special attention to the 2006 election. Unlike previous elections, the incumbent party lost 30 seats. In addition, the Republican party, a majority party for 12 years, lost its majority in both the House and the Senate. The purpose of this paper is to examine the result of the 2006 mid-term election with two perspectives. A macro perspective, mainly focusing on presidential approval ratings and the result of the previous presidential election, views the mid-term election as a national event while a micro perspective, particularly focusing on an incumbent effect and decreasing competitive districts, considers it as a local event. This paper investigates which perspective is more comprehensive in explaining the result of the 2006 election. The macro perspective which anticipated around 37 seats change of the Republican party attributes the result of the election to low presidential approval ratings. On the other hand, the micro perspective shows that weak electoral support and a moral problem have an effect on those who are unsuccessful in reelection. Since each perspective concentrates upon different factors, there is limitation in explaining the mid-term election with only one perspective. Therefore, the outcome of the 2006 mid-term election can be explained comprehensively when factors the two perspectives lay emphasis on are considered at the same time.

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