비례위험모형을 이용한 수도권 민간주택건설입지 확률모형의 개발과 적용

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Suburban sprawl in Seoul metropolitan area made us recognize the importance of planned development and facilitated urban growth management program. To manage suburban private development, we need to predict the location of private land development in advance. In this context, this study aims to analyze the determinants of private development and to predict the development pattern. The section two offers a theoretical and methodological background of land use model and survival analysis. In section three, a description of study area, data and variables for the model follows. In section four, this study sets the estimation model using Cox's proportional hazards model and tries to predict land development patterns according to the four scenarios of developable land. The major results and policy implication of this study are as follows. First, this study explored the locational factors of private residential development in order to make informed decisions on more effective and feasible growth management program. Second, spatial prediction results enable policy makers to identify which area has the highest development pressure and to designate the planned area.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 "토지이용변화 확률모형 구축 및 적용에 관한 연구" 36 (36): 95-111, 2001

2 "토지이용규제정책 평가를 위한 밀도결합형 CA모형의 개발: 수도권 개발제한구역을 중심으로" 2003

3 "택지개발 우선순위 결정모형 정립 및 청주시 사례연구" 37 (37): 285-299, 2002

4 "제2종지구단위계획수립지침" 2003b

5 "원격탐사와 GIS를 이용한 수도권 도시화지역의 확산과정과 특성에 관한 연구" 2002

6 "수도권의 도시성장 분석 및 예측을 위한 셀룰라 오토마타 모델링" 2001

7 "수도권 준농림지역의 토지용도전환 연구" 1997

8 "수도권 도시성장관리와 신도시개발" 2000

9 "서울시 상업지역 토지이용의 특성 및 결정요인에 관한 연구" 1993

10 "비교연구를 위한 통계적 방법론" 자유아카데미 1992

11 "기반시설연동제운영지침" 2003a

12 "국토의 효율적 관리를 위한 토지적성평가에 관한 연구 :국토연구원 연구보고서" 2001

13 "국토계획법 운용지침" 2002

14 "고용 및 녹지 접근성을 동시에 고려한 잠재력 모형의 주거입지 수요추정" 37 (37): 55-63, 2002

15 "UrbanSim Reference Guide" University of Washington 2000

16 "Survival Analysis Using the SAS System: A Practical Guide" SAS Institute Inc 1995

17 "SPSS for windows를 이용한 생존분석" SPSS 아카데미 1999

18 "Projecting Land-Use Change: A Summary of Models for Assessing the Effects of Community Growth and Change on Land-Use Patterns" 2000

19 "Land Development" Home Builder Press 2000

20 "Interpreting the Suburban Development Game in Seoul Metropolitan Area" Proceedings of 1st World Planning Schools Congress in Shanghai 2001

21 "Interacting Agents, Spatial Externalities and the Evolution of Residential Land Use Patterns" 2 : 31-54, 2002

22 "Imagining Land Use Futures: Applying the California Urban Futures Model" 61 (61): 438-457, 1995

23 "Greenbelt Impacts on Dynamics of Physical Urban Development and Land Market A Welfare Analysis - The Case of Seoul's Greenbelt University of Pennsylvania" 1994

24 "GIS 실습: 아크뷰를 활용한 지도 제작과 공간분석" 서울:한울출판사 2003

25 "Dimensions of Residential Developer Decision Making in Rapidly Urbanizing Region" socio-eco (socio-eco): 57-60, 1986