도시성장 분석 및 예측을 위한 셀룰라 오토마타 모델 개발 = Developments of Cellular Automata Model for the Urban Growth

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In physical aspects, urban growth means the expansion of built up areas. There have been numerous approaches to model and interpret the growth of a city. However, these approaches - especially the common bid-rent models - over-simplify the spatial variations of a city. Although these approaches might be powerful tools for a clear understanding of urban growth, they usually fail to generate detailed spatial implications required for planning practices due to their simplicity in assumptions. This study presents an alternative model based on the cellular automata theory. This model is a non-linear dynamic system based on discrete time and space. Also, in order to incorporate the socio-economic aspects of an urban growth, we introduce external variables based on allometry. The Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) is selected as a research area to apply the model, and its growth to the year of 2050 is predicted based on the characteristics of the past growth. Although it is an exemplary model and requires lots of improvements in dealing with related socio-economic data and details of the algorithm, it can be a good start to develop a more practical model for planning practices.