응급실 방문 노인 환자의 사망률 예측 = Mortality Prediction of Older Adults Admitted to the Emergency Department

국문 초록 (Abstract)

세계 인구의 고령화가 진행되는 오늘날 노인들을 위한 의료 서비스의 수요는 점차 증가할 것으로 보인다. 특히, 응급실을 방문하는 노인 환자는 일반 환자보다 다양한 질병을 갖고 있거나, 특이한 증상을 호소하는 등 복잡한 의학적, 사회적 및 신체적 문제를 가지고 있는 경우가 많다. 우리는 65세 이상의 응급실을 방문한 노인 환자의 사망률 예측을 위해 연령, 성별, 혈압, 체온, 혈액검사, 주증상명 등의 의료 데이터를 사용하였다. Feed Forward 신경망과 지지벡터기계를 각각 학습하여 사망률을 예측하고 그 성능을 비교하였다. 1개의 은닉층을 사용한 Feed Forward 신경망의 실험결과가 가장 좋았으며, 이 때 F1 점수는 52.0%, AUC는 88.6%이다. 좀 더 좋은 의료 자질을 추출하여 제안 시스템의 성능을 향상시킨다면 응급실에 방문한 노인 환자들을 위한 효과적이고 신속한 의료 자원 배분을 통해 더 좋은 의료 서비스를 제공할 수 있을 것이다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As the global population becomes aging, the demand for health services for the elderly is expected to increase. In particular, The elderly visiting the emergency department sometimes have complex medical, social, and physical problems, such as having a variety of illnesses or complaints of unusual symptoms. The proposed system is designed to predict the mortality of the elderly patients who are over 65 years old and have admitted the emergency department. For mortality prediction, we compare the support vector machines and Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) trained with medical data such as age, sex, blood pressure, body temperature, etc. The results of the FFNN with a hidden layer are best in the mortality prediction, and F1 score and the AUC is 52.0%, 88.6% respectively. If we improve the performance of the proposed system by extracting better medical features, we will be able to provide better medical services through an effective and quick allocation of medical resources for the elderly patients visiting the emergency department.

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