북극·알래스카 항로 기반 한국의 LNG 공급망 다변화와 에너지 안보 함의 = LNG Supply Chain Diversification in South Korea: Energy Security Implications of Arctic and Alaskan Routes

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Russia-Ukraine war has shifted the paradigm of global energy security from cost efficiency to supply chain resilience. This study examines the structural shifts in the European LNG supply chain and evaluates its strategic implications for Korea’s utilization of the Arctic and Alaskan maritime routes. By analyzing EU import data from 2019 to 2025, we identify a distinct ‘J-curve’ pattern in market concentration (HHI), revealing that temporary easing of concentration from Russian pipeline gas eventually led to a structural ‘re- dependency’ on U.S. LNG rather than balanced diversification. Applying the APERC 4A framework to the Korean context, we assess two contrasting scenarios: importing Russian Arctic LNG via the NSR (S1) and securing Alaskan LNG via a non-Russian route (S2). The results demonstrate a clear trade-off: while S1 significantly enhances ‘Affordability’ and ‘Availability’ through logistical efficiency, it critically compromises ‘Acceptability’ and ‘Accessibility’ due to sanctions risks and alliance constraints, and high operational barriers such as icebreaking and insurance costs. Conversely, S2 offers a complementary option with high geopolitical stability and route-level resilience despite limited diversification effects. The analysis suggests that Korea’s Arctic energy strategy requires an integrated approach that prioritizes qualitative diversification and geopolitical alignment over mere economic efficiency.