Prediction and validation of geographic distribution of Thrips palmi based on Maximum Entropy approach

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Thc climate change has the potential to significantly modify the actual distribution of insect pest with unknown consequences on agricultural systems and management strategies. In this study, Thrips palmi Karny was selected to predict distribution under climate change. T. palmi was introduced and first recorded in 1993 in Korea, and has become a serious pest of vegetable and ornamental crops. The MaxEnt was applied to T. palmi to predict its potential geographic distribution in Korea and Japan under the RCP 8.5 climate changing scenario. The MaxEnt software package is one of the most popular tools for species distribution and environmental niche modeling. The habitat prediction model of T. palmi in Korea was validated by the distribution of T. palmi in Japan. Based on the MaxEnt modeling, T. palmi would expand their potential distribution to whole Korean peninsula except the alpine region in Gangwon-do and Yanggang-do and Hamgyeongbuk-do in 2070s. Therefore, the monitoring system and management strategy for T. palmi should be reconsidered and re-evaluated.