확률적 출산율 모형과 한국의 미래인구 구조 = Probabilistic Fertility Models and the Future Population Structure of Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

We summarize the pronatalist policies and their effects carried out in OECD counties and we propose a new probabilistic model for fertility rates using the three phases of fertility transitions. This new model forecasts total and age-specific fertility rates by employing the fertility rates that OECD countries have experienced into a multivariate regression model with autocorrelated noise process. Using nine population scenarios calculated by probabilistic confidence intervals of fertility mortality rates, we investigate impacts of the fertility and mortality rates on total population, work population, power-work population, and school age population until year 2100. We inspect the future population structure by presenting dependency ratios and aging indices, show that aging speed in Korea is too fast compared to OECE countries, and demonstrate that the future of Korea depends on how to successfully raise the fertility rate during the coming 10 years.