특허정보를 활용한 기술동향의 분석 및 예측 : NCW 정보보호기술을 중심으로 = Trend analysis and forecasting of technology using patent information : focused on information-security technology for NCW

국문 초록 (Abstract)

21세기 세계 경제는 지식 기반 경제로 급변하고 있으며, 강력한 특허권을 확보하는 것은 지식 기반 경제로의 이행을 위한 핵심 전략으로 여겨지고 있다. 이에 따라 전략적인 연구개발 및 특허권 확보를 위해 기존의 특허정보를 분석하는 연구가 많이 진행되고 있다. 하지만 일반적인 특허정보 분석은 대부분 현재까지의 기술동향에 대한 자료를 통계적으로 표현하거나 추가적으로 관련 전문가의 정성분석을 포함하는 정도에 국한하고 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 선행기술조사를 통한 특허 동향 분석에 더하여 제한적으로 활용되고 있는 특허정보를 활용하여 미래의 기술 확산 형태를 예측해 보았으며, 이를 위해 확산 예측에 널리 사용되고 있는 기법인 Bass 모형과 Logistic 모형을 통해 실험을 진행하였다. 논문의 실험데이터로는 현재 한국군이 미래전의 주개념으로 설정하고 있는 네트워크중심전(Network-Centric Warfare; 이하 NCW)에서의 정보보호기술과 관련한 특허데이터를 활용하여 기술동향을 분석하고 확산형태를 예측해 보았다.
먼저 특허동향 분석결과 전 세계적으로 NCW 정보보호기술에 대한 특허출원량이 급격한 증가추세를 보이고 있으며 기술경쟁력 측면에서는 미국의 특허가 양적으로나 질적으로 모두 우세함을 알 수 있었다. 반면 한국의 특허출원은 2002년을 기점으로 급증하고 있어 양적으로 크게 성장하고 있는 것으로 나타났지만 특허출원이 거의 국내에만 집중되고 있어 국제적인 경쟁력을 확보하였다고 볼 수 없으며 앞으로 특허의 포트폴리오를 다각화하고 해외로의 출원을 확대하여 경쟁력을 강화해 나가야 하겠다. 다음으로 NCW 정보보호기술에 대한 기술 확산을 예측하기 위하여 Bass 모형과 Logistic 모형을 실험해본 결과 Logistic 모형이 NCW 정보보호기술의 확산을 예측하기 위한 우수한 모형임을 알 수 있었다. Logistic 모형을 통해 기술 확산을 예측해 본 결과 현재 NCW 정보보호기술이 점차 성숙기에 접어들고 있음을 분석할 수 있었으며, 이에 따라 개량특허 위주의 방어적 특허 포트폴리오 구성이 필요함을 알 수 있었다.
본 분석들은 NCW를 구현하고 이에 대한 연구개발이 이루어져야 하는 한국군에 있어 중복개발을 방지하고 연구개발의 방향을 설정하는 데 유용한 자료가 될 수 있으며, 논문에서 제시하고 있는 분석방법은 제한적으로 활용되고 있는 특허정보의 발전된 분석 방법으로 고려될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The paradigm of economy has been transformed into knowledge based economic paradigm in 21th century. Analysis of patent trend is one of the strategic methods for increasing their patent competitive power. However, this method is just presenting statistical data about patent trend or including qualitative analysis of expert about some core technology. This research suggest not only patent trend analysis but also forecasting the diffusion of technology using patent information for more progressive analysis. And this research make an experiment with bass model and logistic model and make use of patent data about information-security technology for NCW as input data. The resust of this research will suggest a meaningful information for efficient R&D of information-security technologies on NCW.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제 1 장 서론 ···················································································· 1
• 1.1 연구의 배경 및 목적 ····························································· 1
• 1.2 논문의 구성 ··········································································3
• 제 2 장 이론적 배경 ·········································································4
• 2.1 NCW 정보보호기술 ······························································· 4
• 2.1.1 NCW의 개념 ································································· 4
• 2.1.2 NCW 정보보호기술 ························································ 6
• 2.2 특허 정보 분석 ····································································· 9
• 2.3 기술 확산 예측 ··································································· 10
• 2.3.1 기술 확산의 개념 및 특징 ··········································· 10
• 2.3.2 Bass 모형 ·································································· 11
• 2.3.3 Logistic 모형 ······························································ 12
• 제 3 장 특허 동향 분석 ·································································· 14
• 3.1 전체 특허동향 ·····································································15
• 3.2 국가-기술 연계분석 ·····························································16
• 3.2.1 국가별 연도별 특허 동향 ················································16
• 3.2.2 국가별 기술의 특허 현황 ·············································· 17
• 3.3 출원인 관련 분석 ·································································18
• 3.4 한국의 세부 출원현황 ··························································20
• 3.4.1 한국내 출원인의 국적별 비율 ······································· 20
• 3.4.2 주요 출원인의 세부기술별 특허보유 현황 ·······················22
• 3.5 기술수준 분석 ·····································································23
• 3.5.1 특허당 피인용 수(CPP) ··············································· 23
• 3.5.2 주요국의 연구개발 방향 ···············································25
• 3.5.3 국가 간 기술 경쟁력 ····················································26
• 제 4 장 기술 확산 예측 ··································································27
• 4.1 연구 설계 ·········································································· 27
• 4.2 실험 및 결과 ····································································· 29
• 4.2.1 모형의 추정 ······························································· 29
• 4.2.2 모형의 유의성 비교 ···················································· 31
• 4.2.3 기술 확산 예측 ·························································· 33
• 4.3 결과 분석 ·········································································· 34
• 제 5 장 결론 ·················································································· 35
• 참고 문헌 ························································································37