韓國의 看護人力 模型分析 = An Anglysis and Projection of Korean Nursing Manpower Using Injection-Leakage Model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study was to analyze and project the nursing manpower supply and distribution patterns using Injection-Leakage Model and to iden-tify the factors determining the distribution of nurses in Korea.
The data for the supply of nursing manpower were obtained from the Statistical Year Book of Education using the number of freshman and graduaty from schools of nursing around the country during the period of 1975 to 1980,
The distribution pattern of nurses by employment was analyzed with the data from the Statistical Year Book of Health and Social Affairs during the period from 1975 through 1980, As a supplementary data for distribution analysis, the annual membership registry of Korean Nurese Association was utilized.
The projection of future supply of active nurses was made on the basis of freshman quota of nursing students in 1981 for the period of 1982 to 1990.
The analyze the factors affecting the distribution of nurses variables such as the demographic data, socio-economic status, educational status and urbanization indexes from population census data of 1980 R.O.K Economic Planning Board ware used against the dependent variables such as the ratios of nurse/population nurse/doctors, nurse/hospital beds and nurse/medical facilities. The multiple regression analysis method was used for this purpose.
The findings of this study are summarized as follows;
1, The results of supply analysis revealed that there were 4,734 freshmen nursing students in 1980 as compared to 3,542 in the year of 1975 which indicates an increase of 53.8% over 1975.
2, The total number of graduates in 1980 were 3,321 as compared to 2,695 in 1975 with an increase of 23.2% over 1975.
3. The total number of newly licensed nurses in 1980 were 3,398 as compared to 3,790 in 1975 with the decrement rate of 10.4% over 1975.
4. The distribution analysis revealed that about 36∼45% of the total number of licensed nurses were active nursing forces for average during the period of 1976 to 1981.
The distribution patterns by the institution showed that the rate of employment in public general hospitals consisted 18.5% in 1981 as compared of 14.2% in 1975. And the rate of employment in private general hospitals were 38.7% in 1981 as compared to 29.4% in 1976 which indicates a marked increase in the rate of employment in general hospitals. On the other hands, the rate of employment at the private clinic revealed a slight derement as shown from the employment data of 10.5% in 1981 and 12.5% in 1976. The employment rate at the health center was decreased to 8.9% in 1981 in 1981 from 16.4% in 1987.
5. The geographical distribution of nurses as shown in membership data of Korean Nurses Association shows that the composition rate of Seoul and Puasn were 50.6% and 8.0%, respectively in 1980 as compard to the rates of 48.8% and 7.4% in 1975. However, there was a reduction of membership in Kang Won-Do and JeonLa-Do during the same period.
The results of this data reveals that there was a tendency for centralization of nurses in metropolitan areas.
6, The projection of nurses' supply was based on the freshman quota in 1981 with the assumption that those nurses will graduate and find jobs within the country. The total number of active nurses is estimated to of be 27.766 in 1985 and 43,696 in 1990 after accounting the leakage variables. This number will be a 266.5% increase in 1990 over the base year of 1981.
7. The results of analysis of factors affecting geographical distribution of nurses by multiple regression analysis method were as follows:
a. The total number of nurses in urban ares were higher than that of rural areas but the ratio of nurse per doctor in urban areas were lower than that of rural areas.
b. There was a positive correlation among the urbanization variables, urban population rate and he income level and educational variabels and supply rate of nurses to urban area. But there was a negative correlation between rates of the farm population and farming family and the rate of nursing manpower supply to rural areas.
c. The supply of nurses were weakly affected by the distribution of medical facilities as compared to socio-economic indicators.
d. There was a positive correlation between supply of nurses in urban areas and the economic indicators as shown in income tax, the rate of high school students of the population and the urbanization indexes.
In the conclusion of the study, the following recommendations can be made for futrue balance of supply and distribution of nurses in Korea.
There will be a surplus of nurses in year around 1990 if no further expansion of health facilities are assumed and the current utilization pattern of nurses continues.