기후변화 인식이 작물재배 전환에 미치는 영향 : 건강신념모델(HBM)을 기반으로

국문 초록 (Abstract)

기후변화는 기존에 예상하지 못했던 자연환경으로 인해 모든 산업에 영향을 주는데 이것이 새로운 문제가 되고 있다.
본 연구는 국내외 기후변화 현상에 대해 정리하고 농작물 재배 시 영향을 주는 기상 및 생물 환경에 대하여 고찰하였으며 기상에 대한 농업인의 감수성과 대응에 대한 상관관계가 지속적인 농산물 생산활동에 어느 정도 영향을 주는지를 분석하고
기후변화에 따른 대응 방안을 제시하였다.
농작물 재배환경에서 기상환경으로는 온도·강수량·온실가스와 생물환경으로는 병해충·토양미생물·잡초에 대한 기후변화의 영향에 대해 알아보았다. 이산화탄소(CO2), 아산화질소(N2O), 메탄(CH4), 과불화탄소(PFCs), 수소불화탄소(HFCs), 육불화황(SF₆)의 온실가스로 인한 지구 온난화 현상이 농업 생태계 교란과 기상이변을 초래하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 농업생산물의 피해를 증가시키는 관련 사항을 알아보았다.
또한, 온실가스 농도 증가 등 여러 가지 기후변화 현상과 각국의 온실가스의 대책 및 대응 방안을 알아보고, 한국의 온실가스의 대책 및 대응 방안도 알아보았다.
온난화의 심각성에 따라 월동 병해충이 많아지고 외래 신종 병해충이 유입되면서 농업 생산물에 큰 악영향을 주고 있다. 기후변화에 의해 외래 잡초가 점차 확장하고 있으며, 농작물을 위협하고 생산성을 하락시키고 있다. 이에 기후변화에 적응하고 대응하기 위해서는 기후변화에 대한 자료를 수집·보관하여, 보다 효과적이면서 체계적인 연구와 활성화가 절실히 필요하다. 정부와 지자체는 공익적 기능, 식량 안보, 준공공재로서의 가치 등 농업만이 가지고 있는 특수한 경우를 감안하여 지원정책 수립과 문제해결 방안을 알아보고 제시하였다.
농업에 종사하고 있는 300명의 농업인을 대상으로 매개변수를 건강신념모델인 지각된 민감성, 지각된 심각성, 지각된 장애, 지각된 이익을 농업인의 기후변화 인식의 척도로 잡고 기후변화에 대한 인식이 어느 정도 인지와 기상정보에 관련된 항목을 조사하고, 향후 농업생산에 지속해서 할 것인지, 작목 변경 시 정부나 지자체에서 어떠한 지원과 역할을 원하는지를 설문지를 통해 조사, 분석하였다.
본 연구는 변수 간의 영향 관계를 실증적으로 검증하고자 기후변화 인식과 작물재배 전환 간의 관계에서 건강신념모델이 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 분석하기 위해 연구가설을 설정하였다.
본 연구에서 제시한 기후변화 인식 잠재변수는 기후변화 감수성, 기후변화 대응의지 등 2개의 관측변수로 측정하였고, 건강신념모델 잠재변수는 지각된 민감성, 지각된 심각성, 지각된 이익, 지각된 장애 등 4개의 관측변수로 측정하였다.
또한, 작물 재배 전환의 잠재변수는 작목전환 시 애로사항, 정부·지자체의 지원, 정부·지자체의 역할 등 3개의 관측변수로 측정하였으며, 본 연구의 확인적 요인분석 모형에 포함된 잠재변수와 관측변수들은 모두 집중타당도를 확보한 것으로 나타났다.
본 연구에서 제시한 연구모형에 대해서 구조방정식모형 분석을 수행하였다. 구조방정식모형 검증 결과 추정치에 대한 설명은 기후변화 인식과 건강신념모델 간의 관계, 건강신념모델과 작물 재배 전환 간의 관계 등으로 각각 구분해서 설명하였는데 대부분이 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤다. 반면, 기후변화 대응 의지가 지각된 심각성에, 지각된 심각성이 작목전환 시 애로사항에, 지각된 심각성이 정부·지자체의 지원에, 지각된 이익이 작목전환 시 애로사항에는 의미 있는 영향을 미치지 않았다.
연구결과에서 정책적 시사점은 작물 재배 전환을 작목전환 시 애로사항, 정부·지자체의 지원, 정부·지자체의 역할 등으로 구분하여 연구결과를 도출하였다. 기후변화 인식과 작물 재배 전환 간의 관련성에 대한 정책적 시사점을 제시하는 연구결과이다.
실무적 시사점은 작물 재배에 종사하는 종사자들의 건강신념모델에 대한 실무적인 이해가 충분히 될 때 기후변화 인식에 따른 효과적인 작물 재배 전환에 대한 대응방안이 마련될 수 있다는 점을 실무적 시사점으로 도출하였다. 종사자의 건강신
념모델의 하위변인 요인들에 따라서 작물 재배 전환에 대한 대응책이 달라진다는 점을 제시하였다는 점에서 실무적 시사점이 있는 연구이다.
이와 관련하여 천안농업기술센터에서는 기후변화대응 방안에 대한 것으로 기상관측 및 예측을 통한 농작물 안정생산과 병해충 적기방제, 신 소득 작목 발굴을 위한 아열대 작목 및 기후변화에 따른 대체 작물 시범 농가 육성, 작물 재배 적지 변화에 따른 경쟁력 있는 품목 발굴 및 다양한 방법으로 연구 중이다. (이혁재)
결론적으로 기후변화에 대한 인식을 심각하게 인식하고 위기의식을 느껴 기상정보를 전략적으로 활용하여 농업 활동에 활용하는 것이 위험을 최소화하고 기후변화에 따른 품목을 선정하여 그 품목에 따른 기술습득 및 교육이 준비되어야 하며 지속 가능한 생산활동을 하는 효율적인 방안을 모색해야 할 것이다. 더 나아가 기후변화에 대응을 강화하게 하기 위해서는 국가들과 국제 관련 기구 등이 협력하여 감시 시스템 및 식량 생산 변동예측모델 그리고 자발적인 강력한 온실가스 감축 의지등이 필요하다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Climate change affects all industries due to the previously unexpected natural
environme t, which is becoming a new problem.
This study summarized climate change phenome a at home and abroad,
considered the meteorological and biological environme ts that affect crop
cultivation, and analyzed how much the correlation between farmers'
susceptibility and response to weather affects continuous agricultural production
activities. and prese ted countermeasures according to climate change.
In the crop cultivation environme t, the effects of climate change on
temperature, precipitation, and greenhouse gases as meteorological environme ts
and pests,　 soil microorganisms, and weeds as biological environme ts were
investigated. Global warming phenome on caused by greenhouse gases such as
carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), perfluorocarbons
(PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) is disrupting
agricultural ecosystems and causing extreme weather eve ts. In this study, the
related matters that increase damage to agricultural products were investigated.
In addition, various climate change phenome a such as the increase in greenhouse gas conce tration and countermeasures and counterplans　for
greenhouse gases in each country were investigated, as well as Korea's
countermeasures and counterplans for greenhouse gases.
　As the severity of global warming increases, the number of overwintering
pests increases and new exotic pests are introduced, greatly affecting
agricultural production. Foreign weeds are gradually expanding due to climate
change, threatening crops and reducing productivity. Accordingly, in order to
adapt and respond to climate change, it is urge tly needed to collect and store
data on climate change, and conduct more effective and systematic research and
activation. The ce tral and local governme ts established support policies and
identified and prese ted solutions to problems in consideration of special cases
unique to agriculture, such as public interest functions, food security, and value
as semi-public goods.
　For 300 farmers enga ed in agriculture, the parameters of the health belief
model, such as perceived sensitivity, perceived severity, perceived disability, and
perceived be efit, were set as the scale of farmers' perception of climate change,
and their perception of climate change was Items related to degree perception
and meteorological information were investigated, and surveys and analyzes
were conducted through questionnaires on whether to continue a ricultural
production in the future, and what kind of support and role the governme t or
local governme t wants when changing crops.
　In order to empirically verify the effect relationship between variables, this
study set up a research hypothesis to analyze the effect of the health belief
model on the relationship between climate change awareness and crop cultivation
conversion.
　The latent variables of climate change perception prese ted in this study were
measured with two observed variables: climate change sensitivity and climate
change response will. The health belief model latent variables were perceived
sensitivity, perceived severity, perceived be efits, and perceived disability. It was
measured with 4 observation variables.
　In addition, the latent variables of crop cultivation conversion were measured
with three observed variables: difficulties during crop conversion, support from the ce tral governme t and local governme ts, and roles of the ce tral
governme t and local governme ts. Latent variables and observed variables
included in the confirmatory factor analysis model of this study all appeared to
have secured converge t validity.
　Structural equation model analysis was performed for the research model
prese ted in this study. The explanation of the estimate of the structural
equation model verification results was divided into the relationship between the
climate change perception and the health belief model, and the relationship
between the health belief model and crop cultivation conversion, etc., but most
of them had a positive effect. On the other hand, the will to respond to climate
change had no significant effect on perceived severity, perceived severity on
difficulties during crop conversion, perceived severity on the ce tral governme t
and local governme ts' support, and perceived be efits on difficulties during
crop conversion.
　As for the policy implications of the research results, the research results
were derived by dividing the crop cultivation conversion into difficulties during
crop conversion, support from the ce tral governme t and local governme ts,
and the role of the ce tral governme t and local governme ts. This is a
research result that prese ts policy implications for the relationship between
climate change awareness and crop cultivation conversion.
　As for the practical implications, it was derived that when a practical
understanding of the health belief model of workers engaged in crop cultivation
is sufficient, countermeasures for effective crop cultivation conversion according
to climate change awareness can be prepared. This study has practical
implications in that it suggests that the countermeasures for conversion to crop
cultivation vary depe ding on the sub-variables of the worker's health belief
model.
　In this regard, the Cheonan Agricultural Technology Center is about climate
change response plans, stable production of crops through meteorological
observation and prediction, timely control of pests, subtropical crops to discover
new income crops and cultivation of pilot farms of alternative crops for climate
change. We are researching in various ways and discovering competitive items according to the change in suitable land.
　In conclusion, it is important to seriously recognize the awareness of climate
change, feel a sense of crisis, and use weather information strategically for
agricultural activities to minimize risks, select items according to climate change,
and acquire skills and prepare education according to the item. We need to be
prepared and find an efficient way to carry out sustainable production activities.
Furthermore, in order to strengthen the response to climate change, countries
and international organizations need to work together to develop monitoring
systems, food production fluctuation prediction models, and voluntary strong will
to reduce greenhouse gases.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제I장. 서 론
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 ··························································································1
• 1. 연구의 배경 ········································································································1
• 2. 연구의 목적 ········································································································2
• 제2절 연구의 범위 및 내용
• 1. 연구의 범위 ········································································································3
• 2. 연구의 내용 ········································································································3
• 제Ⅱ장. 이론적 배경
• 제1절 한국의 기후변화 영향 ························································································4
• 1. 기후변화의 영향 및 생물 종 격감 ···········································································5
• 2. 온실가스의 증가 ··································································································9
• 3. 기온의 상승과 강수량의 변화 ··············································································17
• 4. 한국 정부의 기후변화 정책 방향 ··········································································19
• 제2절 기후변화와 농업의 관계 ···················································································25
• 1. 기후변화의 현황 ································································································25
• 2. 기후변화와 농작물 생물환경 ···············································································27
• 3. 충남지역(천안)의 기후변화 ················································································29
• 제3절 해외 국가별 기후변화 대응 사례 ·······································································35
• 1. 미국 ·················································································································36
• 2. 중국 ·················································································································37
• 3. 일본 ·················································································································38
• 4. 유럽(EU) ··········································································································38
• 제4절 선행연구 고찰 ································································································40
• 1. 기후변화 인식 ···································································································40
• 2. 건강신념모형(Health Belief Model:HBM) ·························································42
• 3. 작물재배 전환 ···································································································45
• 제Ⅲ장. 연구방법
• 제1절. 연구모형의 설정 ····························································································48
• 제2절. 연구가설의 설정 ····························································································49
• 1. 기후변화 인식과 건강신념모델 간의 관계 ····························································49
• 2. 건강신념모델과 작물재배 전환 간의 관계 ····························································50
• 제Ⅳ장. 분석결과
• 제1절. 조사대상자의 분포 ·························································································52
• 제2절. 기술통계 분석 ·······························································································55
• 제3절. 타당성 및 신뢰성 분석결과 ·············································································57
• 1. 기후변화 인식 ···································································································57
• 2. 건강신념 모델 ···································································································59
• 3. 작물재배 전환 ···································································································61
• 제4절. 연구가설 검증 ·······························································································63
• 1. 확인적 요인분석 ·······························································································63
• 2. 연구가설 검증 결과 ···························································································65
• 제V장. 결론
• 제1절. 연구의 요약 ··································································································73
• 제2절. 연구결과의 시사점 ························································································75
• 참 고 문 헌 ·················································································································77
• 부 록(설문지) ·············································································································84
• ABSTRACT ················································································································91