동아시아 지역에서의 무역 및 금융시장 통합과 경기변동 동조성 = Trade Integration, Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper empirically studies the effects of trade and financial market integration on business cycle synchronization in East Asia. By examining the data of 14 East Asian countries during 2004～2013, we find that the degree of business cycle synchronization in the region had decreased until 2008, but increased from 2008 till 2011. Both trade and financial integration have been intensified for the past ten years. Empirical analysis for 9 East Asian countries shows that trade integration has positive effects on business cycle synchronization as shown in previous literature. Effects of financial integration differs according to its characteristics: equity market integration weakens business cycle synchronization due to wealth effects and industry diversification through consumption risk sharing, while debt market integration strengthens business cycle synchronization through balance sheet effects. These empirical results can provide important policy implications on financial market liberalization policies.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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