고령화가 가계소비에 미치는 영향 : 중국자료를 중심으로 = The Impact of Aging on Household Consumption in China

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this paper, by using the Chinese provincial annual panel data during 2002-2016, we analyzed the impact of population aging on household consumption of urban and rural residents in China. The result show that the population aging has a positive correlation with the household consumption of rural residents and the reverse correlation to the urban residents in China.
Based on the empirical results, improving the social security system and medical health care system to ensure the old people’s quality of life is very important to keep up the consumption. Acceleration of aging will cause the problem in the area of social pension, medical system, labor force structure, and so on. On the other hand, the increasing population of the old can also produce a huge business opportunity for enterprises in China to promote the consumption of medical health care needs.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 2002년~2016년의 중국 대륙 31개 성(province)의 연간 패널 데이터(annual panel data)를 이용하여 인구고령화가 가계 소비에 미치는 영향에 대해서 실증적으로 분석을 하였다. 중국은 도시와 농촌의 경제 발전이 불균형하므로 분석 자료를 도시와 농촌으로 나누어서 회귀분석을 진행하였다. 도시의 경우, 노년부양비율이 가계 소비와 음(-)의 상관관계로 나타났지만 농촌의 경우는 노년부양비율이 가계 소비와 양(+)의 상관관계를 보였다. 고령화가 진전됨에 따라 노년 인구의 증가는 중국 도시 가계 소비를 감소시키고 농촌의 가계 소비는 오히려 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 중국 도시에 있는 노인들은 미래에 대한 불확실성으로 인해 소비보다 저축을 더 많이 선호하는 경향을 보인 반면, 대부분 젊은 노동력이 더 높은 소득을 얻기 위해서 떠나고 농촌에 남아 있는 노인들은 소득 창출보다는 단순한 소비자의 경향을 보였다.

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