Revolutionary mass uprisings in authoritarian regimes

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article explores the conditions under which revolutionary mass uprisings are likely to occur. We offer a probabilistic explanation of the social and political conditions that make people rise against autocrats. The article presents a medium-n dataset of 79 revolutionary mass uprisings in 165 autocracies since 1945. Since revolutions are rare events, a combination of factors must come together to trigger them. Drawing on the extant literature on revolutionary change, we find initial support for a range of discrete factors. Our findings suggest that four such factors are particularly powerful explanations of revolutionary mass uprisings—and a combination of those factors will go a long way in predicting revolutionary change: a history of protracted low-level popular contention; the presence of personalist regimes; long tenure of incumbents in office; and the showroom effect of uprisings in the temporal and spatial vicinity of states. In a broader theoretical perspective, these findings give rise to a breaking-point explanation of revolutionary situations, emphasizing that mass uprisings build up over time, whereas structuralist theories or grievance-based approaches fare less well in predicting revolutionary ruptures.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Gurr TR, "Why Men Rebel" Princeton University Press 1970

2 Goemans H, "Which way out? The manner and consequences of losing office" 52 (52): 771-794, 2008

3 Kendall-Taylor A, "When dictators die" 27 (27): 159-171, 2016

4 Radnitz S, "What really happened in Kyrgyzstan?" 17 (17): 132-146, 2006

5 Geddes B, "What do we know about democratization after twenty years?" 2 : 115-144, 1999

6 Chenoweth E, "Unpacking violent campaigns: Introducing the NAVCO 2.0 dataset" 50 (50): 415-423, 2013

7 Harsch E, "Trop c’est trop! Civil insurgence in Burkina Faso, 1998–1999" 26 (26): 395-406, 1999

8 Davies JC, "Toward a theory of revolution" 27 (27): 5-19, 1962

9 Lachmann R, "Theorizing Revolutions" Routledge 73-101, 1997

10 Beissinger M, "The semblance of democratic revolution: Coalitions in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution" 107 (107): 574-592, 2013

11 Bishara D, "The politics of ignoring: Protest dynamics in late Mubarak Egypt" 13 (13): 958-975, 2015

12 Roessler P, "The enemy within: Personal rule, coups and civil war in Africa" 63 (63): 300-346, 2011

13 Snyder RS, "The end of revolution?" 61 (61): 5-28, 1999

14 Lohmann S, "The dynamics of informational cascades: The Monday demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989–91" 47 (47): 42-101, 1994

15 Carey SC, "The dynamic relationship between protest and repression" 59 (59): 1-11, 2006

16 Woo A, "The differential effects of ‘democratic’ institutions on dissent in dictatorships" 81 (81): 456-470, 2019

17 Webb AK, "The calm before the storm? Revolutionary pressures and global governance" 27 (27): 73-92, 2006

18 Mann M, "The autonomous power of the state: Its origins, mechanisms, and results" 25 (25): 185-213, 1984

19 Svolik MW, "The Politics of Authoritarian Rule" Cambridge University Press 2012

20 Scott JC, "The Moral Economy of the Peasant: Rebellion and Subsistence in Southeast Asia" Yale University Press 1977

21 Weyland K, "The Arab Spring: Why the surprising similarities with the revolutionary wave of 1848?" 10 (10): 917-934, 2012

22 Brownlee J, "The Arab Spring: Pathways of Repression and Reform" Oxford University Press 2015

23 Brinton C, "The Anatomy of Revolution" Prentice Hall 1952

24 Beissinger M, "Structure and example in modular political phenomena: The diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions" 5 (5): 259-276, 2007

25 Skocpol T, "States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia and China" Cambridge University Press 1979

26 Hess S, "Sources of authoritarian resilience in regional protest waves: The post-Communist Color Revolutions and 2011 Arab uprisings" 51 (51): 1-29, 2016

27 Goldstone JA, "Revolutions: Theoretical, Comparative, and Historical Studies" Harcourt 1986

28 Koehler K, "Revolutions and the military: Endgame coups, instability, and prospects for democracy" 2019

29 DeFronzo J, "Revolutions and Revolutionary Movements" Westview Press 1991

30 Trimberger EK, "Revolution from Above: Military Bureaucrats and Development in Japan, Turkey, Egypt, and Peru" Transaction Books 1978

31 Goldstone JA, "Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World" University of California Press 1991

32 Kimmel MS, "Revolution : A Sociological Interpretation" Temple University Press 1990

33 Boudreau V, "Resisting Dictatorship: Repression and Protest in Southeast Asia" Cambridge University Press 2004

34 Tilly C, "Regimes and Repertoires" University of Chicago Press 2006

35 Hale HE, "Regime cycles: Democracy, autocracy, and revolution in post-Soviet Eurasia" 58 (58): 133-165, 2005

36 McAdam D, "Recruitment to high-risk activism: The case of Freedom Summer" 92 (92): 64-90, 1986

37 Russell DEH, "Rebellion, Revolution, and Armed Forces: A Comparative Study of Fifteen Countries with Special Emphasis on Cuba and South Africa" Academic Press 1974

38 Roeder PG, "Rational revolution: Extensions of the ‘by-product’ model of revolutionary involvement" 35 (35): 5-23, 1982

39 Tarrow S, "Power in Movement : Social Movements and Contentious Politics" Cambridge University Press 1998

40 Casper BA, "Popular protest and elite coordination in a coup d’état" 76 (76): 548-564, 2014

41 Bueno de Mesquita B, "Political succession: A model of coups, revolution, purges and everyday politics" 61 (61): 707-743, 2017

42 Koehler K, "Political militaries in popular uprisings: A comparative perspective on the Arab Spring" 38 (38): 363-377, 2017

43 Huntington SP, "Political Order in Changing Societies" Yale University Press 1968

44 Lyall J, "Pocket protests: Rhetorical coercion and the micropolitics of collective action in semiauthoritarian regimes" 3 : 378-412, 2006

45 Kowalewski D, "Periphery revolutions in world-system perspective, 1821–1985" 24 (24): 76-99, 1991

46 Singer D, "Peace, War, and Numbers" SAGE 19-48, 1965

47 Alamos-Concha P, "Pathways to Revolution: When the Unstable Social Equilibrium and the Active International Intervention against Regimes Matter – A Comparative Analysis of 12 Middle East and North African Countries using QCA" 2014

48 Almeida PD, "Opportunity organizations and threat-induced contention: Protest waves in authoritarian settings" 109 (109): 345-400, 2003

49 Kuran T, "Now out of never: The element of surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989" 44 (44): 7-48, 1991

50 Nepstad SE, "Nonviolent Revolutions : Civil Resistance in the Late 20th Century" Oxford University Press 2011

51 Davenport C, "Multi-dimensional threat perception and state repression: An inquiry into why states apply negative sanctions" 39 (39): 683-713, 1995

52 Shadmehr M, "Mobilization, repression, and revolution: Grievances and opportunities in contentious politics" 76 (76): 621-635, 2014

53 Lee T, "Military cohesion and regime maintenance: Explaining the role of the military in 1989 China and 1998 Indonesia" 32 (32): 80-104, 2005

54 Toronto N, "Military Recruitment Data Set, Version 2005.1"

55 Pavel K. Baev, "Matrix for Post-Soviet ‘Color Revolutions’: Exorcising the Devil from the Details" 국제지역연구센터 14 (14): 3-21, 2011

56 McLauchlin T, "Loyalty strategies and military defection in rebellion" 42 (42): 333-350, 2010

57 King G, "Logistic regression in rare events data" 9 (9): 137-163, 2001

58 Stinchcombe AL, "Handbook of Organizations" Rand McNally & Co 142-193, 1965

59 Wickham-Crowley TP, "Guerillas and Revolution in Latin America : A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes since 1956" Princeton University Press 1992

60 Goemans H, "Gleditsch KS and Chiozza G(2009)Introducing Archigos : A dataset of political leaders" 46 (46): 269-283, 2009

61 Tilly C, "From Mobilization to Revolution" Addison-Wesley 1978

62 Beissinger M, "Explaining divergent revolutionary coalitions: Regime strategies and the structuring of participation in the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions" 48 (48): 1-24, 2015

63 Albrecht H, "Exit, resistance, loyalty: Military behavior during unrest in authoritarian regimes" 14 (14): 38-52, 2016

64 El-Mahdi R, "Enough! Egypt’s quest for democracy" 42 (42): 1011-1039, 2009

65 Kurer T, "Economic grievances and political protest" 58 (58): 866-892, 2019

66 McAdam D, "Dynamics of Contention" Cambridge University Press 2001

67 Colgan JD, "Domestic revolutionary leaders and international conflict" 65 (65): 656-690, 2013

68 Koesel KJ, "Diffusion proofing: Russian and Chinese responses to waves of popular mobilization against authoritarian rulers" 11 (11): 753-768, 2013

69 Cheibub JA, "Democracy and dictatorship revisited" 143 (143): 67-101, 2010

70 Banks AS, "Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive"

71 Ulfelder J, "Contentious collective action and the breakdown of authoritarian regimes" 26 (26): 311-334, 2005

72 Franklin JC, "Contentious challenges and government responses in Latin America" 62 (62): 700-714, 2009

73 Albertus M, "Coercive capacity and the prospects for democratization" 44 (44): 151-169, 2012

74 Geddes B, "Autocratic breakdown and regime transitions: A new data set" 12 (12): 313-331, 2014

75 Davenport C, "Assessing the military’s influence on political repression" 23 (23): 119-144, 1995

76 Bhavnani R, "Announcement, turnout, and credibility in popular rebellions" 47 (47): 340-366, 2003

77 Paige J, "Agrarian Revolution: Social Movements and Export Agriculture in the Underdeveloped World" Free Press 1975

78 Escriba-Folch A, "Accountable for what? Regime types, performance, and the fate of outgoing dictators, 1946–2004" 20 (20): 160-185, 2013

79 Li Y, "A zero-sum game? Repression and protest in China" 54 (54): 309-335, 2019

80 Acemoglu D, "A theory of political transitions" 91 (91): 938-963, 2001

81 Bauman Z, "A revolution in the theory of revolutions?" 15 (15): 15-24, 1994

82 Goldstone JA, "A global model for forecasting political instability" 54 (54): 190-208, 2010