수도권 교외지역 쇠퇴의 변화 분석: 인구･주택 이중노후화를 중심으로 = Analyzing Changes in Suburban Decline in the Seoul Metropolitan Area: Focusing on Population-Housing Double Aging

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study empirically examines suburban decline by analyzing “double ageing,” a condition in which both population ageing and housing ageing progress simultaneously, at a 1 km grid scale. The Double Ageing Index (DAI) was constructed by combining the Z-standardized compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the elderly population ratio and the Z-standardized change in average housing age between 2000 and 2020. Using the DAI, the study first identified grids exhibiting double ageing and then examined their population and housing characteristics. In addition, Getis-Ord' G* statistics and ring(distance)–direction(sector) analyses were applied to capture spatial clustering patterns and directional diffusion of double ageing. The results indicate that double ageing is concentrated in the inner suburban belt within 20km of Seoul’s administrative boundary, and is particularly associated with large-scale apartment complexes supplied in the 1990s. This suggests that these areas have undergone rapid double ageing due to structural similarities in housing development periods and household composition.
By contrast, outer low-density areas show relatively low DAI values, despite high absolute levels of ageing, because their rates of change remain modest. Through fine-scale, grid-based spatial analysis, this study provides empirical evidence of suburban decline grounded in double ageing and highlights the need for a paradigm shift in suburban policy frameworks.