부동산시장 전망과 관련 정책변수의 영향분석 연구: 아파트시장을 중심으로 = Forecasting Real Estate Markets and Impacts of Policy Variables

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper focuses on analyzing the effects of price change caused by the government intervention. To acquire the solution, the market was divided into large, medium and small sizes for analysis. ARIMA model was used to find the estimate price for each market. According to the analysis results, the capital gains tax was more effective on the medium market than on the large size market in reducing the price increase; furthermore, as expected, the capital gains tax and property tax turned out to have negative effects on all three market types. To be more specifically, the flexibility of the capital gains tax in the medium market is -0.81, which is greater than that of the large size market, which is -0.49. And the absolute value of the property tax`s flexibility is bigger for the standard medium size market than the large size market, which leads to the conclusion that the increase in capital gains tax and property tax will have a greater impact in slowing down the apartment price increase of medium markets than that of large size markets. Thus, the capital gains tax cannot be declared as an effective government tool for curbing the apartment price rise in the large size market in South Korea. As expected, capital gains tax and gains tax displayed negative price change effects in medium quality markets. Furthermore, the important difference between the high quality market and medium quality market is that the housing`s future price makes an impact on the rise of housing price in large size markets, while the housing price has a greater impact in medium markets. This indicates that the apartments of the large size markets take the future value of the asset more into consideration than the previous term`s housing price. However, as the urban regeneration has recently become an important issue not only in Korea but also in other nations, lowly-estimated sections can be reflected to cause a great increase in the value by enacting redevelopments with the mid-sized multiplex houses. The flexibility of capital gains tax and property tax had negative effects on small size markets as well, and contrary to the large size markets, the previous term`s apartment price rate had bigger effect on the future value of the housing. The analysis results appeared to be applicable for finding a political solution. It can be thought that the political solution can be specifically achieved through simulation analyses for each situation such as tax variables. The market separation attempted in this research can be said to be adequate for the Korean situation. The sensitivity level for each policy variable for the income class with insufficient purchasing power has a big effect on the current policies that emphasize the aspects of supply. Thus, the aspects of demand and supply are simultaneously taken into consideration, and the need for a policy that reflects the market`s dynamics is urgent.