21세기 미중일 관계의 전망: 역사적 유추(historical analogy)의 두 관점 = Prospect of 21st Century US-Sino-Japanese Relations:Two Perspectives of Historical Analogy

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 논문은 미국과 중국, 그리고 일본 사이의 삼자관계가 미래의 세계정치와 아시아 정치에 가장 중요한 구성요소라는 전제 아래서 20세기 미국의 대 중국, 대 일본 정책 수행의 두 사례를 역사적으로 고찰하고, 그를 바탕으로 21세기의 미중일 관계를 전망하는 것을 그 목적으로 한다. 이 연구에서 사용되는 논의의 틀은 역사적 유추인데, 이는 국제정치학과 역사학을 연계하는 방법론의 가능성을 제시하고 있다. 논문의 전반부는 먼저 역사적 유추의 두 입장을 소개한 후, 식민주의 시기와 냉전기의 미중일 관계의 전개 양상을 검토한다. 후반부에서는 전반부의 논의를 바탕으로 21세기의 미중일 관계에 있어 반복적 유형의 등장을 예상하는 입장과 차별적인 유형의 가능성을 탐색하는 입장을 대비해 보고자 하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Trilateral relations between the United States, China and Japan will be a key component of both world and Asian politics in the future. This article attempts to forecast 21st Century US-Sino-Japanese relations through the examination of two historical cases from the 20th Century. The framework for this analysis is that of historical analogy, which provides a linkage between the disciplines of international relations and history. The article has two main parts. The first introduces the two perspectives of historical analogy, and looks through the developing processes of the trilateral relations in the colonial and Cold War period. The second examines the ongoing situation of the relations, comparing the position that predicts the emergence of a recurrent pattern and the position that explores the possibility of a different pattern in the 21st Century. E. H. Carr's thesis on "What is history?" is used as a reference for this comparison.

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