輸入性 인플레이션 國內物價 變動에 미치는 영향 = Effect on Domestic Price Level by Imported Inflation

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The influence that the mark up of imported goods has on the effect of a rise in domestic prices varies considerably according to the extent of openess of the domestic economy. In the "small open economy" in Korea the broader the extent of openess, the greater the influence of the rise of the price of imported goods on domestic prices. On the contrary, vice versa.
As illustrated by equation 15 of the theoretical model, we see that the most important factors which change the general price level at home and abroad are the fluctuation of international prices, including exchange rates, the change of money supply, and real output. Therefere, we find that unless we start working first on such sectors as prices of imorts, money supply, and real output level inorder to exclude the pressure of internal inflation, we can not expect effective results. However, inasmuch as the foreign currency level of imports is unilaterally decided in the international market for the small open economy, and the fixed exchange rate system is in operation, we cannot control the foreign currency level of imports. Therefore the efficient method is to adjust the amount of money supply and real output level for the purpose of reducing the pressure of imported inflation whenever international inflation occurs.
The result of empirical evidence is illustrated by equation 21 : between ?? and actual movement, there is an explainable power which is 0.9082, and to which the sign of every coefficient coinclides with a theoretical model and has confidende under the 5% of confidence level. Adding(??) and the coefficient of ?? is one. Therefore, this result sufficiently supports the theoretical model set up in this text.
As for a change of prices during the past 19 years, there was a 0.69% average increase compared with a one % increase of the rate of change of the prices of the prices of imported goods and exchange rates; there was a one % increase of the amount of money supply, while prices on th average advanced 0.31%; and the real GDP increased 1% while prices on the average declined 0.57%. Hence in the Korean economy, in order to extend openess gradually, we should first fully realize that we ought to readjust the money supply at the appropriate level as an effective measure needed to be taken to cope with imported inflation to make internal prices stable.
As it is, it is impossible to accomplish this desired and without difficulty and great obstacles, using only a method of stabilizing internal factors while ignoring external factors.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 序 論
• Ⅱ. 理論背景과 模型設定
• 1. 輸入性 인플레이션
• 2. 貨幣數量說模型
• Ⅲ. 實證分析
• 1. 物價變動背景의 考察
• 2. 回歸分析
• Ⅳ. 分析結果의 評價
• 1. 實證分析의 結果
• 2. 年度別 物價上昇要因의 영향
• Ⅴ. 結 論