한국 대외전략의 기저 : 안보를 중심으로 = Major Underpinnings of the ROK's External Strategy with an Emphasis on Security Dimension

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Since December last year the IMF economic crisis has been hitting hard the South Korean economy, resulting in cutting down drastically its erstwhile economic prowess and, thus, in bringing about somewhat serious negative impacts on such non-economic areas as defense, diplomacy, and security, let alone economic sectors. It would be all the more difficult externally for South Korea, because the strategic consequences of the current economic crisis in East Asia in which South Korea as an individual country has been directly involving, could be far-reaching and serious, and would, provide, therefore, the latter with much uncertain and unstable regional security environment in East Asia, let alone coping with various sorts of security threats from North Korea, which has long been gripped by the serious socio-economic crisis as a 'failed' or 'failing' state regime.
Against this backdrop, this paper aims in the main at identifying the major underpinnings of the ROK's external strategy especially in terms of security dimension, in the midst of the IMF crisis.
In order to meet this research objective. we attempted to analyze in this paper. first of all. manifold, either manifest or potential. constraints coming from the current IMF economic crisis as regards the South Korea's conducting foreign as well as security policies, especially in terms of a broadened concept of comprehensive security rather than the military-oriented, narrow-scoped security one. Therefore, we have not directly dealt with defense or military policies in this paper.
As a result of the analysis along the line of research suggested above. we have discerned several crucial research findings such as:
(1) The current economic crisis in East Asia including South Korea seems to be a defining event of the post-Cold War interstate order in the region. especially marking the start of the second phase of the post-Cold-War regional strategic order, which will be more uncertain and changeable than the previous period from 1989-97. The strategic consequences of the IMF economic crisis in East Asia could be far-reaching: the South Korea's drastically curtailed economic capacity in dealing with long crisis-ridden North Korea, and inter alia. the economic downturn alters a central factor in the East Asian regional stability and cohesion, as underpinned by economic growth during last several decades.
(2) Given a damaging impact of the current economic crisis in East Asia on maintaining regional stability and cohesion, and crucial strategic implications emanating from the regional economic crisis as such. the security environment in the region. which connotes the South Korea's external security environment. will be much uncertain and unstable in the years to come. It is in this context that South Korea has been doubly burdened, since its constraints as regards the pursuing of foreign and security policies, owing to the IMF economic crisis, would be all the more pronounced and perhaps increased because of a much uncertain and unstable security environment in East Asia.
(3) It is certain that the current economic crisis in East Asia, as well as that in South Korea, is likely to make North Korea more difficult in managing to get food aids from the outside, Perhaps this situation may press the Kim Jong-il regime in North Korea to take either an option of military adventurism or a somewhat reconciliatory posture toward the South. Given several factors currently bearing upon both internal and external situations in North Korea such as: namely. internally on the one hand, a topmost priority of maintaining the Kim Jong-il regime and the really serious socio-economic crisis within the North Korean society; externally on the other, the 'soft-landing' policies of the four major powers ( the USA, China, Japan and Russia) toward North Korea, and the Kim Dae-jung government's 'Sunshine' policy vis-a-vis the North, it is our view in this paper that on balance North Korea would be likely to take an option nearer to a reconciliatory posture than a military adventurist line on a continuum from the two above extremely opposite policy options in the years ahead. At the same time we share the view to some extent that there remains a possibility of the so-called collapse scenarios' either 'implosion' or 'explosion', being translated into a reality, albeit being very slim at this stage.
Finally, we have suggested in this paper the three specific security policy directions which are directly related to some major underppings of the South Korea's external security strategy, especially in this difficult era of the IMF economic crisis, as follows:
First, we should exert all our endeavors in establishing a working peace-system on the Korean peninsula, mainly based upon a two-pronged strategy namely, maintaining our strong 'deterrence strategy' on the one hand and pursuing aggressive 'engagement policy' on the other, with respect to Inducing North Korea out of its self-imposed isolation.
Second, we should take maximum advantage of the four major powers'(USA, China, Japan and Russia) deep concern with, and deep interests in, the 'North Korean problem' and pursuing 'soft-landing policies respectively toward the North. Herein. we should continue to strive to see it to that the North may turn to a peaceful coexistence with the South throughout such existing sorts of multilateral approaches to the Korean peninsula as, namely, carrying out the KED 0 project and advancing the four-party talks, together with exerting efforts for improving inter-Korean relations. Our strenuous efforts for establishing a peace-system on the Korean peninsula, as suggested above, would, in effect, turn out to be greatly conducive to promoting our unification diplomacy visa-a-vis the four powers surrounding the Korean peninsula.
Last but not least, we should continue to exert all our efforts in realizing the forging of a multilateral security cooperation regime in Northeast Asia, i.e., a very crucial strategic environment, thereby providing the regional peace and prosperity, namely, 'collective good' beneficial to all the countries across the region.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론: 문제의 제기
• Ⅱ. IMF 사태의 외교, 안보적 영향 분석
• Ⅲ. 새로운 안보환경의 도전
• Ⅳ. 한국 안보정책 방향
• Ⅴ. 결론
• Summary