펄프 수입가격과 수입량 및 해상운임지수 간의 동태적 인과관계 분석 = Dynamic Causal Relationships among Import Price, Import Quantity, and Ocean Freight Rate Index in the Chemical Pulp Market

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study investigates the dynamic causal relationships among import price, import quantity, and ocean freight rate index in the chemical pulp market. The Johansen cointegration test was applied to determine the cointegration among the three time series variables in this study, demonstrating their long run equilibrium relationship. Results of the vector error correction model (VECM) indicated that the pulp import quantity has an error correction mechanism that leads to convergence toward the long run equilibrium level or steady state.
Furthermore, the Granger causality test results revealed a unidirectional causal relationship between the ocean freight rate index and quantity of wood pulp imported, implying that ocean freight rates influence the quantity of wood pulp imported. Moreover, the results of impulse response analysis revealed that an increase in ocean freight rate index shock has a notably negative impact on pulp import quantity, leading to the general decrease in import quantity in both the short and long run.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

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참고문헌 (Reference)

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2 김선웅 ; 이석일 ; 윤병삼, "수입 펄프 가격의 시계열적 특성 분석" 한국펄프·종이공학회 53 (53): 98-105, 2021

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