거시경제 충격이 주택가격 결정 메커니즘에 미치는 영향 연구 - 코로나19 팬데믹 전후 비교 - = The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on Housing Price Trends Before and After COVID-19

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes the structural changes in Seoul Metropolitan Area apartment market from 2016 to 2023, comparing periods before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The VECM results show that the number of cointegrating vectors rose from two to three after the pandemic, indicating a more complex long-term equilibrium with the emergence of an additional supply-response cointegrating pathway. Variance decomposition analysis shows that liquidity's influence on sales prices decreased by over 50% (6.82% → 3.05%), while the explanatory power of interest rates increased to 17.66%, maintaining its position as the most influential external factor in housing prices. These findings imply that an "interest rate-led price adjustment structure," in which prices react more strongly to interest rate shocks than to liquidity expansion, replaces the previous method of determining housing prices. Moreover, Jeonse prices (Korea’s unique lump-sum deposit lease system; 4.85%) and housing starts (3.52%) played larger roles in the model as supplementary factors. Therefore, while maintaining steady supply signals and monitoring rental market liquidity as an auxiliary stabilizer, future policies should prioritize the structural effects of interest rates on market sentiment.