계량정보분석을 활용한 기술혁신의 Weak Signal 탐색에 관한 연구 = A Study on Exploring Weak Signals of Technology Innovation using Informetrics

국문 초록 (Abstract)

최근 들어 미래산업에 대한 관심이 더욱 고조됨에 따라 과학기술에 있어서도 미래를 예측하는 것, 특히 미래 과학기술 변화의 징후, ‘weak signals’의 탐색에 대한 요구도 증가하고 있는 추세이다. weak signals란 현재에는 불확실하고 비정상적인 신호이지만 미래 변화를 주도할 예비 징후를 의미하며, 이는 미래예측에 있어서 중요한 실마리를 제공하게 된다. weak signal에 대한 연구는 기술의 미래를 연구하는 데 있어 중요한 단초를 좀 더 먼저 제공한다는 점에서 중요성을 인식할 수 있으나, 그 개념부터 탐색 방법, 활용에 이르기까지 그리 길지 않은 역사를 가진 분야로 더욱 심도 깊은 연구가 요구되고 있다. 또한 이를 탐색하는 방법에 있어서 주로 높은 수준의 감각과 전문성을 갖는 전문가의 내용분석에 의해 이루어져 왔으나, 그러한 분석이 쉽지 않을 뿐만 아니라 범위도 넓고, 그 분석결과의 해석 또한 전문가 개인의 판단에 맡길 수밖에 없다는 한계가 있었다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 작업을 좀 더 객관적으로 지원할 수 있는 방법을 제시하기 위한 것으로서, 비정형적 기사정보를 대상으로 정보분석에 의해 계량적인 결과를 도출하고, 이를 바탕으로 전문가의 징후 발견 논거를 마련
해 보고자 한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As recently the interest in the future industry grows high, the demand for forecasting the future shape of science and technology, especially exploring ‘weak signals’ of changes in science and technology, increases as well. The ‘weak signals’ means that currently they are uncertain and abnormal signals, but are preliminary signals which might lead future changes. Accordingly they can provide important clues to the future forecast. The study of ‘weak signals’ has its significance in providing important clues to the projection of the future technology earlier. As it has not a long history from its concept to exploration methods to utilization, more intensive study is required. Exploring ‘weak signals’ has been conducted mainly through the information analysis by experts with a high level of intelligence and sense, However, such an analysis is difficult and broad in scope, and furthermore the interpretation of analysis results is very limited, relying primarily on the decision of experts themselves. The purpose of this study is to provide a more objectified way to support these expert-based tasks. It derives quantitative results from non-structured article information and provides a logical basis for detecting the signals based on the results.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 제임스 데이터, "다가오는 미래" 예문 2008

2 Kajava, J, "Weak Signals in Information Security Management" 2 : 508-517, 2005

3 Fountain Park, "Weak Signals Toolset"

4 Coffman,B.S, "Weak Signall Research, Part II: Information Theory" MG Taylor Corporation 1997

5 Coffman B.S, "Weak Signal Research, Part III: Sampling, Uncertainty and Phase Shifts in Weak Signal Evolution" MG Taylor Corporation 1997

6 Coffman,B.S, "Weak Signal Research, Part I: Introduction" MG Taylor Corporation 1997

7 Coffman, B.S, "Weak Signal Research, Journal of Transition Management"

8 Hiltunen,E, "Was It a Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change" 11 (11): 61-74, 2006

9 Trendwiki, "Signal"

10 Saul,P, "Seeing the Future in Weak Signals" 10 (10): 93-102, 2006

11 Van der Heijden,K, "Scenarios" Strategies and the Strategy Process. 1997

12 Salmon,R, "Picking-up Weak Signals" Intuition to Conviction

13 Uskali,T, "Paying Attention to Weak Signals" 2 (2): 3-19, 2005

14 Coffman B.S, "Part V: A Process Model for Weak Signal Research" MG Taylor Corporation 1997

15 Ansoff,H.I, "Managing Strategic Surprise by Response to Weak Signals" 18 (18): 21-33, 1975

16 Ansoff,H.I, "Implanting Strategic Management, Englewood-Cliffs" Prentice-Hall International 1984

17 Brown,D, "Horizon Scanning and the Business Environment : The Implications for Risk Management" 28 (28): 208-214, 2007

18 Godet,M, "From Anticipation to Action: A Handbook of Strategic Prospective" UNESCO Publishing 1994

19 Ilmola, L, "Filters of Weak Signals Hinder Foresight: Monitoring Weal Signals Efficiently in Corporate Decision-making" 38 : 908-924, 2006

20 de Brabandere,L, "False Endings, Weak Signals; Putting Together the Odd Pieces of Information That Could Save Your Business" 52-55, 2005

21 Coffman B.S, "Brian, Weak Signal Research, Part IV: Evolution and Growth of the Weak Signal to Maturity" MG Taylor Corporation 1997

22 Fountain Park, "Ansoff’s Three different Filter"

23 Conway,M, "An Overview of Foresight Methodologies" Thinking Futures 2008

24 Mendonca, S, "1-Wild Cards Weak Signals and Organisational Improvisation" 36 : 201-218, 2004

25 Hiltunen,E, ""The Future Sign and Its Three Dimensions"" 40 : 247-260, 2008

26 Day, G, ""Scanning the Periphery"" 135-148, 2005