남북한 노인인구의 장래추계 및 전망

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper examines the size of the current (1999) and projected (2010 through 2050) populations of the old (ages 60+) and oldest old (ages 80+) of South Korea and North Korea. By mid-way through the next century, we show that Ssouth Korea will have one of the oldest populations of any country in the world, and North Korea`s population will not be much younger. We note that South Korea and North Korea have not been characterized in the past by large numbers of old people. We thus consider Korea`s demographic past prior to the onset of colonial administration, and then the demographic transitions of the two countries. We note that the major factor responsible for South Korea`s and North Korea`s very large current and projected numbers of elderly are their dramatic fertility transitions experienced since the 1970s. We then consider the very heavy dependency burdens on the producing populations of South Korea and North Korea, and show that these burdens will get even heavier in the decades ahead. The paper is concluded with a discussion of some of the social and economic implications of these large numbers of elderly populations.