기후변화에 따른 안동,임하호 유역의 부유사량 분석 = Analysis of Suspended Solid of Andong and Imha Basin According to the Climate Change

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzed the change of flowout and suspend solid in Andong and Imha basin according to the climate change to develop evaluation index about turbid water occurrence possibility and to support the countermeasures for turbid water management using GIS-based Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT). MIROC3.2 hires model values of A1B climate change scenario that were supplied by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were applied to future climage change data. Precipitation and temperature were corrected by applying the output value of 20th Century Climate Coupled Model (20C3M) based on past climate data during 1977 and 2006 and downscaled with Change Factor (CF) method. And future climate change scenarios were classified as three periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) and the change of flowout and suspended solid according to the climate change were estimated by coupling modeled value with SWAT model. Flowout and suspended solid of Andong and Imha basin in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s were simulated as increasing compared with standard year (2006). Also, as the result of seasonal change, flowout and suspended solid of Andong and Imha basin in spring, autumn, and winter showed as increasing compared with standard year. And them of Andong and Imha basin in summer were analyzed as decreasing compared with standard year.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 정일원, "수자원에 대한 기후변화 영향평가를 위한 고해상도 시나리오 생산(Ⅱ): 유역별 유출시나리오 구축" 한국수자원학회 40 (40): 205-214, 2007

2 배덕효, "수자원에 대한 기후변화 영향평가를 위한 고해상도 시나리오 생산(Ⅰ): 유역별 기후시나리오 구축" 한국수자원학회 40 (40): 191-204, 2007

3 유철상, "기후변화와 수자원 : 국내의 연구동향" 33 (33): 42-47, 2000

4 이길하, "기후변화에 따른 임하댐 유역의 GIS 기반 토양침식 추정" 대한토목학회 28 (28): 423-429, 2008

5 김웅태, "기후변화에 따른 대청댐 유역의 유출 영향 분석" 한국수자원학회 37 (37): 305-314, 2004

6 박종윤, "기후변화가 충주댐 유역의 하천수질에 미치는 영향평가를 위한 유역 모델링" 한국수자원학회 42 (42): 877-889, 2009

7 안소라, "기후변화가 경안천 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가" 한국수자원학회 42 (42): 33-50, 2009

8 Santhi, C, "Validation of the SWAT model on a large river basin with point and nonpoint sources" 37 (37): 1169-1188, 2001

9 Chung, S. W, "Validation of EPIC for two watersheds in southwest Iowa" 28 (28): 971-979, 1999

10 Ramanarayanan, T. S, "Using APEC to identify alternative practiced for animal waste management, Minnea-polis" 1997

11 이용준, "SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후변화 및 토지이용 변화에 따른 안성천 유역 수문 - 수질 변화 분석 (I)" 대한토목학회 28 (28): 653-663, 2008

12 Nash, J. E, "River flow forecasting through conceptual model; Part 1 - A discussion of principles" 10 (10): 398-409, 1970

13 Cater, T.R, "IPCC-TGCIA Guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact and adaptation assessment" Task Group on Scenarios for Impact Assessment 1999

14 Green, C. H, "Hydrologic evaluation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for a large tile-drained watershed in Iowa" 49 (49): 413-422, 2006

15 이근상, "GIS 공간분석을 이용한 안동 · 임하호 유역의 토사유실 비교 평가" 대한토목학회 26 (26): 341-347, 2006

16 안재현, "GCM 결과를 이용한 지구온난화에 따른 대청댐 유역의 수문환경 변화 분석" 34 (34): 335-345, 2001

17 Legates, D. R, "Evaluating the use of goodness of fit measures in hydrologic and hydro-climatic model validation" 35 (35): 233-241, 1999

18 Viner, D, "Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Studies in the UK" University of East Anglia 1994

19 IPCC, "Climate Change 2007 : The Scientific Basis, IPCC Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" Cambridge University Press 2007

20 Santhi, C, "Application of a watershed model to evaluate management effects on point and nonpoint source pollution" 44 (44): 1559-1570, 2001

21 Droogers, P, "Adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability: A comparative study between seven contrasting river basins" 30 : 339-346, 2005

22 배덕효, "A2 시나리오에 따른 국내 수자원의 변동성 전망" 한국수자원학회 40 (40): 921-930, 2007

23 Wilby, R. L, "A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames" 42 : 1-10, 2006

24 Diaz-nieto, J, "A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods impacts on low flows in the River Thames" 69 : 245-268, 2005