후판단편파의 감소: 반대사실적 사고와 확증편파의 매개효과 = Debiasing the Hindsight Bias: Counterfactual Thinking as a Strategy to Counteract the Confirmation Bias

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구의 주요 목적은 의사결정자의 의사결정시에 확증편파와 후판단편파가 발생하는지와 반대사실적사고(CFT점화)가 확증편파를 감소시키고 이러한 확증편파의 감소가 후판단편파를 감소시키는 매개작용을 하는지를 알아보는데에 있다. 확증편파란 현재의 가설(기준점)을 반대하는 정보보다는 지지하는 증거를 주로 탐색하는 경향을 말하고 후판단편파란 결과정보를 알고 있는 경우에 이를 처음부터 알고 있었다고 지속적으로 과장하는 경향을 의미한다. 이를 위해 회계감사에서의 계속기업의 평가를 실험내용으로 하여 두 차례의 실험을 수행하였다. 실험1에서는 공인회계사를 피험자로 선정하였고 동시적 정보탐색과 상향식 CFT를 실험상황으로 설정하여 실험이 실시되었다. 피험자는 CFT점화집단과 CFT비점화집단 그리고 도산정보제공집단과 비도산정보제공집단에 무작위로 배정되었다. 실험결과 확증편파와 후판단편파가 존재하였고 이러한 확증편파는 CFT점화에 의하여 감소되었다. 중요한 결론으로는 CFT점화가 확증편파를 감소시켰고 이는 다시 후판단편파를 감소시켜서 CFT점화가 후판단편파에 미치는 영향에 확증편파가 매개작용을 하고 있음이 밝혀졌다. 또한 피험자들은 제공받은 결과정보와 일치하는 정보를 더 중요하게 평가하는 경향이 있음도 발견되었다. 실험2에서도 같은 방법으로 실험을 실시하였다. 다만 실험1과의 차이는 실험상황을 하향식CFT와 순차적 정보탐색으로 설정하였고 피험자가 학생이라는 점이다. 실험결과 실험1과 유사한 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 특히 이 실험에서도 확증편파가 CFT점화의 후판단편파에 대한 영향에 매개변인역할을 하고 있다는 것이 발견되었다. 본 연구의 일반화를 위하여 매개변인인 확증편파 이외의 다른 인지재구축과정의 대리변수의 개발이 향후의 연구에서 이루어져야 할 것이다.

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