國際收支ㆍ換率決定에 있어 貨幣論的 分析에 관한 考察 = A Study on the Monetary Approach to the Determination of the Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A new approach to the whole area of balance-of-payments theory has been developing rapidly and gaining popularity in recent years as an alternative to the "elasticity approach," the "absorption approach," and various other "Keynesian approaches" under the general description of the "monetary approach to the balance of payments."
The purpose of this study is to present a monetary model for the determination of the balance of payments by integrating the Keynesian system and the Walrasian system, to develop some crucial monetary causal hypothesis which involve very practical policy implications, and to present the modern monetary approach to the exchange rate determination which may be viewed as the counterpart to the monetary approach to the balance of payments.
The monetary models built in this study exclusively focus on the role of money stock in determining the balance of payments and the exchange rate.
Therefore, our basic theoretical models reflect the current revival of a monetary view of the determination of the balance of payments and the exchange rate. The important concept of stock-flow distinction is fully incoporated in this monetary models. It is emphasized that money is a stock variable, not a flow variable, and that monetary disequilibrium and equilibrium require analysis of stock adjustment processes and stock equilibrium conditions.
In the first section we lay out a distinguishing mark for the monetary approach to the balance of payments. In the second section we develop a purely monetary approach to the balance of payments in discussing a two-country, two-money, and one-commodity model. This stripped down model abstracts from the complexities of distribution and substitution effects that may arise from changes in relative commodity prices and places primary emphasis on the real balance effect.
In third section we turn from the discussion of theoretical issues in model construction to an exposition of some monetarist models of balance-of-payments behaviour in a growing world economy. The models to be constructed are extremely simple, in as much as they concentrate on the overall balance of payments, i.e. on the trend of international reserve acquisition or loss, and ignore the composition of the balance of payments as between current account, capital account and overall balance, as well as the question of changes in the structure of the balance-of- payments accounts that may occur as a country passes through various stages of economic growth. Nevertheless they will provide some interesting insights into balance-of-payments phenomena.
In fourth section we lay out a general equilibrium framework for the discussion of exchange rates from a long-run perspective. The critical assumptions of that theory are purchasing power parity for traded-goods and monetary equilibrium. Such a view looks monetary and real variables as jointly influencing the equilibrium level of the exchange rate. The view is appropriate to full equilibrium or the long-run and is a benchmark from which to judge departures and alternatives.
In fifth section we explained Lance Girton and Don Roper's monetary model of
exchange market pressure.
The model was designed specifically for the Canadian managed float during the period 1952∼62. The object of their model is to explain what they term "exchange market pressure" : that is, the pressure on foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate when there exists on excess of domestic money supply over money demand in a managed floating exchange rate regime. The basic theoretical proposition is that any such excess supply of money can be relieved by an exchange depreciation, a loss in foreign reserves, or, in the context of a managed float, by some combination of the two. In this sense, Girton-Roper's managed float model used here is firmly rooted in the modern monetary approach to exchange rates and the balance of payments. We briefly states the essential elements of the monetary model, and derives the equation.
In final section we develop a model of the joint determination of the exchange rate, international reserves, and the rate of inflation under a crawling-peg system.
We present the basic model and use it to study the effect of changes in domestic monetary policy on the evolution of these three endogenous variables.
The framework presented, which is an extension of previous work on the monetary
approach, generates short-run deviations from purchasing power parity that occur
simultaneously with movements in both international reserves and the exchange rate. Our theoretical framework can be used to analyze the effects of domestic monetary policy and of external inflation on a crawling-peg economy.
The monetary models developed here are based upon various restrictive assumptions. Needless to say, work should be done to relax those assumptions.
Our basic theoretical framework attempts to explore a new theoretical model for the determination of the balance of payments and the exchange rates.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 序 論
• Ⅱ. 國際收支決定에 관한 貨幣論的 分析理論
• 1. 國際收支의 貨幣論的 接近의 起源과 主要特徵
• 2. 國際收支와 貨幣市場間의 模型設定
• 3. 比較均衡 靜學模型
• 4. 比較均衡 動學模型
• Ⅲ. 換率決定에 있어 貨幣論的 接近
• 1. 變動換率制度에서의 換率決定
• 2. 管理變動換率制度에서의 換率決定
• 3. 크롤링ㆍ펙 換率制度에서의 換率決定
• Ⅳ. 結 論