비대칭 분쟁과 약소국의 선택 = 정망이론(Prospect Theory)의 관점에서 본 포클랜드 전쟁

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This research focuses on the rationale for weak state to choose a war against stronger state in asymmetric conflict. The case study is Falklands War between Argentina and the United Kingdom. From the beginning of Falklands war, U.K coercive policy enforced Argentina junta to have the preference order of Chicken Game. Moreover, Argentina junta was located in deep loss frame caused by legitimacy crisis. Argentina, which had the chicken game preference in the loss frame, choose a gamble of war with stronger U.K. War against stronger parter is risky choice because of high probability to lose with huge cost. But risky choice has still a slight chance to win which could give huge benefits enough to come out of loss frame.
The implication of this research is that weak state with chicken game preference in loss frame is easy to take risky choice of war. This research shows two ways to make weak state to chose peaceful solution in asymmetric conflict. The first is to change preference order of weak state, the other is change the frame effect. The case study of the Falklands war shows that the first is better than the other because the stronger state have a meta-power to enforce weaker state the preference order of choice.