A Study of the Correlation between Impartiality and the Duration of Conflicts Affecting Mediation Strategy

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This research, a study of intervention strategy for successful mediation, attempts to discover appropriate strategic code of conduct for Six‐party Talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear issues. In connection with intervention strategy, this study focuses on the issues of problem intervention set‐up for the mediator and the timing and duration of the intervention. As apparent from the joint statements of Six‐party Talks, peace on the Korean peninsular is deeply linked to solving the problem of North Korean nuclear. And, under discussion are major issues such as nuclear inspection, nuclear dismantlement process, North Korea‐USA normalization process etc. Mediator intervention cannot fully substitute for a lack of specific action strategy or guidelines in a negotiation. Nor can it be explained in terms of simple structure or tendency of the mediator. Therefore, it is necessary to establish precise action strategy for precise timing. In this study, major features of the 1st ‐ 4th Six‐party talks, during which different standpoints of various countries are made apparent, are analyzed in order to discover appropriate strategical action guidelines for South Korea during the Six‐party Talks. multilateral nature of interventions are shown to be effective in shortening the length of conflicts. Finally, it is the assessment of this study that mediation is shown to be more successful when it is bias towards a specific position rather than when it is neutral and that the timing of intervention is more effective at the beginning of negotiation when the agendas are being mediated and at the end of negotiation when agreements are being drawn up.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 다자협상에 있어서 성공적인 중개자의 역할과 전략에 관한 연구이다. 북한 핵문제 해결을 위한 6자회담이 교착을 계속하고 있다. 북핵문제 해결을 위한 다자협상의 기능과 성공적인 중개 전략은 무엇인지 구조적 문제를 살펴보고자 한다. 이론에서 제기하는 성공적인 중개조건은 분쟁 당사자간 갈등 기간과 중개자의 개입 시점을 중심으로 설명하고 있다. 분쟁 당사자간 갈등 기간이 짧을 수록 그리고 중개자의 개입 시점이 분쟁이나 갈등 초기에 개입할수록 중개의 효과는 높은 것으로 나타났다. 북한 핵문제 해결을 위한 6자회담 참여국의 개입 전략과 중개 시점이 협상결과에 미치는 영향요인을 살펴보고자 했다. 성공적인 중개를 위해 중개자의 중립성이나 편향성 어느 것이 더 효과적인 지 여부도 중요한 문제였다. 일반적인 경향은 중립적 성격의 중개자 역할이 성공적이라고 설명하지만 당사자간 갈등이 심화되고 갈등 기간이 오랜 분쟁사례의 경우 중개자가 어느 특정 분쟁 당사자에 대해 보다 우호적인 관계를 갖는 경우가 분쟁해결의 중개효과를 더 높여준다는 전략적 시사를 제공했다.

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