재무분석가 기업이익 예측능력의 국제비교

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether financial analysts` earnings forecasting ability varies across different countries. In particular, we examine the relative superiority of Korean financial analysts` earnings forecasts over those by American analysts. Reative superiority is evaluated in terms of both the forecast accuracy and the appropriateness as a proxy for market expectation. The empirical tests are performed using a sample of 140 Korean firms over 4 year period (1988-1991) for which both the Daewoo Economic Research Institute(Korean analysts) and the Institutional Brokerage Estimate System(IBES : American analysts) provide EPS forecasts data. Our empirical results can be summarized as follows : First, Korean analysts` earnings forecasts are more accurate than the IBES forecasts. This finding is robust with respect to different forecasting horizons(one year and two year ahead forecasts) and industries. However, the superiority of Korean analysts` forecasts decreases as the firm size, the amount of export, and the number of analysts following a firm increase. Second, the IBES forecasts appear to be a better proxy for market expectation than those by Korean analysts. Although statistically insignificant, this result holds up regardless of forecasting horizons, industries, and firm characteristics such as firm size, level of export, and the number of analysts following a firm.