장래 여건 변화를 고려한 민자철도사업 추진방안 개선연구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Recently, policies to expand eco-friendly rail transportation have been promoted worldwide to overcome climate change and achieve carbon neutrality goals. South Korea is also promoting policies centered on eco-friendly rail transportation to realize its 2050 carbon neutrality policy. However, due to limitations in transportation infrastructure (SOC) budgets, there are constraints on funding the massive construction and operational costs of railway infrastructure solely through national finances. To address this, it is necessary to pursue effective private-public partnership (PPP) railway projects that leverage private capital. Meanwhile, future population issues directly linked to demand, such as population decline, aging, and regional depopulation caused by the country's lowest birth rate, are expected to act as obstacles to the implementation of railway projects. In particular, the potential for reduced profitability due to decreased railway demand in local areas caused by the issue of local area extinction is growing. Railway transportation requires high operating costs regardless of demand, unlike other transportation modes such as roads, which means that a future decline in demand could lead to a sharp increase in government fiscal burdens.
This study examined issues related to demand reduction and profitability decline caused by future population decline and regional depopulation. Additionally, to address the potential expansion of fiscal burdens due to changes in domestic and international conditions such as carbon neutrality, this study proposed improvement measures in the areas of project feasibility, implementation methods, and institutional frameworks to preemptively diagnose and minimize risks associated with PPP railway projects and ensure their sustainability.
To activate PPP railway projects in the future, this study proposed measures to enhance the flexibility of project implementation methods, improve business feasibility, strengthen the roles of central and local governments, and improve legal and institutional frameworks.
egarding the flexible application of private railway promotion methods, we proposed the introduction of improvement&operation methods, such as allowing the private sector to propose projects for the improvement of aging railway facilities and the reuse of abandoned lines.
Improvements to project viability include establishing criteria for track allocation and usage fees, promoting ancillary projects, establishing fare and settlement systems for private railways, and improving the free ride system.
Among measures to strengthen the roles of the central and local governments, the report proposed expanding construction subsidies for PPP railway projects in non-metropolitan areas to ensure timely supply of railway services in non-metropolitan areas. Additionally, measures to strengthen the roles of local governments include supporting the expansion of passenger demand through the development of Intermodal transportation system linking railway stations upon the opening of PPP railways and providing financial support for operational costs.
In terms of legal and institutional improvements, the report suggested adjusting construction subsidies based on socio-economic conditions and fiscal self-reliance. Additionally, to activate ancillary projects, the report proposed special provisions for sharing excess profits and revising the basic plan for private investment to allow local governments to participate.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

장래 인구감소, 지방소멸 등으로 인한 수요감소 및 수익성 저하, 탄소중립 등 국내외 여건 변화 등에 따른 재정부담 확대 가능성에 대비하여, 민자철도 사업추진 위험 요소를 사전에 진단 및 최소화하고 민자철도 사업의 지속 가능성을 확보하기 위한 사업성, 추진방식, 제도 분야의 개선방안 제시를 목적으로 한다.
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목차 (Table of Contents)

• 요약 ⅰ
• 제1장
• 서론 1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 3
• 제2절 연구의 범위 5
• 제3절 연구의 수행방법 6
• 제4절 선행연구 검토 및 본 연구의 차별성 8
• 제2장
• 민자철도사업 현황 및 문제점 9
• 제1절 민자철도사업 현황 11
• 제2절 민자철도 관련 법·제도 현황 26
• 제3절 민자철도사업 추진상 문제점 31
• 제4절 소결 및 시사점 38
• 제3장
• 민자철도사업 사회·경제적 여건 변화와 전망 41
• 제1절 인구구조(저출산·고령화 등) 변화와 전망 43
• 제2절 지방소멸 등 국토공간구조 변화와 전망 50
• 제3절 민자철도 관련 정부 정책 동향 및 전망 58
• 제4절 소결 및 시사점 69
• 제4장
• 민자철도사업 추진 현안 및 개선방향 71
• 제1절 민자철도사업 현안 및 개선방향 도출을 위한 전문가 설문조사 개요 73
• 제2절 민자철도사업 현재 및 장래 현안 진단 77
• 제3절 민자철도 사업추진 개선방향 도출 101
• 제4절 소결 및 시사점 108
• 제5장
• 장래 여건 변화를 고려한 철도민간투자사업 개선방안 113
• 제1절 개량운영형 민자철도사업 115
• 제2절 사업성 개선방안 120
• 제3절 이해관계자 간 재원분담 및 역할 재정립 방안 144
• 제4절 민간투자 기본계획 개정방안 148
• 제5절 소결 및 시사점 152
• 제6장
• 결론 및 정책 제언 155
• 제1절 결론 157
• 제2절 정책적 활용방안 160
• 제3절 정책제언 161
• 참고문헌 163
• 부록 171
• 부록 1. 포커스 그룹 인터뷰(FGI) 조사서 173
• 부록 2. 현재 심각성-장래 심각성 조사서(IPA) 176
• 부록 3. 시급성-효과성 조사서(IPA) 183
• Abstract 191