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      쿠데타 이후 미얀마 군사평의회의 통치전략과 소수종족무장단체(EAO)의 대응: 평화협상을 중심으로 = Ruling Strategy of the Myanmar Military Junta and the Response of the Ethnic Armed Organizations after the Coup: Focusing on the Peace-Building Negotiation

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      https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A109226566

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      The purpose of this paper is to firstly retrospect on the assessments of the peace-building negotiations led by the military junta, by deriving the organic and intrinsic relationship between the State Administration Council(SAC) and Ethnic Armed Organizations(EAOs) that emerged in the peace-building negotiations. Furthermore, it also intends to prospect the future of peace-building negotiations by verifying each EAO’s response and requirements to the SAC’s strategies on the peace-building negotiations.
      Since independence, the political landscape of Myanmar has been propelled on the majority ethnic Burman, and minority ethnic groups have been subject to oppression or forcefully integration by the Burman-centered government. Minority ethnic groups have also organized armed organizations in order to pursue autonomy within the Union or independence from the Union that made keep on confronting to the government until now because of those behaviors.
      However, it starts a change in the bloc’s confrontation, as the some EAOs have joined into the anti-military front after the coup. Based on this situation, this paper focuses on the behaviorism of the EAO, of which not only in the sense of having armed forces but a third actor may be the main actor of substantial social change. In the paper, peace talks which have been held since the coup will be selected as a decisive case of analysis. This paper examines whether EAOs will be able to become a crucial actor who could drive changes in the current situation, as understanding of the current situation in Myanmar, which is under de facto the civil war, and the political dynamics among the actors.
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      The purpose of this paper is to firstly retrospect on the assessments of the peace-building negotiations led by the military junta, by deriving the organic and intrinsic relationship between the State Administration Council(SAC) and Ethnic Armed Organ...

      The purpose of this paper is to firstly retrospect on the assessments of the peace-building negotiations led by the military junta, by deriving the organic and intrinsic relationship between the State Administration Council(SAC) and Ethnic Armed Organizations(EAOs) that emerged in the peace-building negotiations. Furthermore, it also intends to prospect the future of peace-building negotiations by verifying each EAO’s response and requirements to the SAC’s strategies on the peace-building negotiations.
      Since independence, the political landscape of Myanmar has been propelled on the majority ethnic Burman, and minority ethnic groups have been subject to oppression or forcefully integration by the Burman-centered government. Minority ethnic groups have also organized armed organizations in order to pursue autonomy within the Union or independence from the Union that made keep on confronting to the government until now because of those behaviors.
      However, it starts a change in the bloc’s confrontation, as the some EAOs have joined into the anti-military front after the coup. Based on this situation, this paper focuses on the behaviorism of the EAO, of which not only in the sense of having armed forces but a third actor may be the main actor of substantial social change. In the paper, peace talks which have been held since the coup will be selected as a decisive case of analysis. This paper examines whether EAOs will be able to become a crucial actor who could drive changes in the current situation, as understanding of the current situation in Myanmar, which is under de facto the civil war, and the political dynamics among the actors.

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      참고문헌 (Reference)

      1 장준영, "아웅산수찌 정부에서 정전협정과 평화구축을 위한 노력 : 회고와 전망" 24 (24): 111-136, 2020

      2 Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, "‘Operation 1027’: A Turning-Point For Myanmar’s Resistance Struggle?"

      3 Tønnesson, "Will Myanmar’s Northern Alliance Join the Peace Process?" PRIO 2019

      4 South, A., "Towards “Emergent federalism” in post-coup Myanmar" 43 (43): 439-460, 2021

      5 IISS, "The military balance 2023" Routledge 2023

      6 Kumbum, J., "The UNFC: Reasons Behind Signing and Not Signing the NCA"

      7 GNLM, "The Remaining EAOs Will be Received to Hold Talks for Restoration of Perpetual Peace: Vice-Senior General"

      8 Mathieson, D. S., "The Rebels Who will and won’t Fight Myanmar’s Coup"

      9 Smith, M., "The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement in Myanmar: Promoting Ethnic Peace or Strengthening State Control?"

      10 Lintner, B., "The Mirage of the ‘United Front’ in Myanmar"

      1 장준영, "아웅산수찌 정부에서 정전협정과 평화구축을 위한 노력 : 회고와 전망" 24 (24): 111-136, 2020

      2 Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, "‘Operation 1027’: A Turning-Point For Myanmar’s Resistance Struggle?"

      3 Tønnesson, "Will Myanmar’s Northern Alliance Join the Peace Process?" PRIO 2019

      4 South, A., "Towards “Emergent federalism” in post-coup Myanmar" 43 (43): 439-460, 2021

      5 IISS, "The military balance 2023" Routledge 2023

      6 Kumbum, J., "The UNFC: Reasons Behind Signing and Not Signing the NCA"

      7 GNLM, "The Remaining EAOs Will be Received to Hold Talks for Restoration of Perpetual Peace: Vice-Senior General"

      8 Mathieson, D. S., "The Rebels Who will and won’t Fight Myanmar’s Coup"

      9 Smith, M., "The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement in Myanmar: Promoting Ethnic Peace or Strengthening State Control?"

      10 Lintner, B., "The Mirage of the ‘United Front’ in Myanmar"

      11 GNLM, "Speech delivered by Chairman of the State Administration Council, Prime Minister, Chairman of the National Unity and Peacemaking Central Committee, Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services Senior General Min Aung Hlaing at the Ceremony to mark the Eighth Anniversary of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement(NCA)"

      12 The Irrawaddy, "Shan State EAOs Reject Myanmar Junta’s Demand to Repudiate Resistance"

      13 Frontier, "Rising Dragon: TNLA Declares ‘Victory’ in Northern Shan"

      14 GNLM, "Republic of the Union of Myanmar State Administration Council Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing Makes Speech to Public"

      15 GNLM, "People Who Commit Financial Fraud Online Arrested"

      16 Lintner, B., "Past Peace Efforts"

      17 Sun, Y., "One Year after Myanmar’s Coup, Old and New Resistance is Undermined by Divisions"

      18 Salai Samuel Hmung, "New friends, old enemies: Politics of ethnic armed organisations after the Myanmar coup" The Australian National University 2021

      19 TNI, "Neither War nor Peace: The Future of the Cease-Fire Agreement in Burma"

      20 NCA-S EAO, "Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement Signatory-Ethnic Armed Organizations, Special Meeting of the Peace Process Steering Team Statement"

      21 GNLM, "National Unity and Peace Coordination Committee Meets Officials of DKBA, KNU/KNLA-PC Separately"

      22 GNLM, "National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee, NCA Signatories Hold 6th Anniversary of NCA"

      23 GNLM, "National Defence and Security Council of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar holds meeting 3/2023"

      24 GNLM, "NSPNC Meets ALP Officials"

      25 Mathieson, D. S., "Myanmar’s ‘Peace Talks’ a Dangerous Diversion"

      26 The Irrawaddy, "Myanmar’s Northern Alliance ‘Not Interested’ in Empty Peace Talks With Junta"

      27 Selth, A., "Myanmar’s Military Numbers"

      28 Ardeth Maung Thawnghmung, "Myanmar's military coup and the elevation of the minority agenda?" 53 (53): 297-309, 2021

      29 Fink, C., "Living silence in Burma: Surviving under military rule" Silkworm Books and Zed Books 2009

      30 The Irrawaddy, "Junta Urges Myanmar’s Most Powerful Ethnic Army not to Supply Arms to Resistance"

      31 Vrieze, P., "Joining the Spring Revolutuon or charting their own path?" 62 (62): 1-31, 2022

      32 ISP, "Inconclusive Mongla Talks and Sagaing Forum’s Federalist Push"

      33 Saw Thonya, "Ethnic Parties Peace Team (PPST) condemns the coup, calls for peaceful solutions and appeals for support from the UN"

      34 Yuzana, "Ethnic Pa-O Group Exits Myanmar Peace Talks, Formally Joins War Against Dictatorship"

      35 Security Risk, "Ethnic Armed Organisations: Role in Myanmar Civil War"

      36 Kumbum, J., "Do the Myanmar Junta’s New ‘Peace-Making Committees’ Stand Any Chance of Success?"

      37 Htet Myet Min Tun, "Buttressing the anti-NLD project: Data on the civilian members of Myanmar’s state administration council Junta" 2021 (2021): 1-27, 2021

      38 Moe Sett Nyein Chan, "Brotherhood Alliance of Three Ethnic Armies a Key Player in Myanmar’s Civil War"

      39 Htet Myet Min Tun, "Beware of False Peace in Myanmar"

      40 Zaw Oo, "Assessing Burma's ceasefire accords" East-West Center 2007

      41 Ko Oo, "Around 31% of Ethnic Fighters in Myanmar Actively Supporting Resistance"

      42 GNLM, "Announcement for Armed Resistance Organizations’ Members including PDF who Want to Enter Legal Fold"

      43 Nyein Nyein, "Analysis: Why Did the KNU Temporarily Leave Peace Talks?"

      44 Clymer, K., "A delicate relationship: The United States and Burma/Myanmar since 1945" Cornell University Press 2015

      45 BNI, "A Proposal by 7 NCA Signatory EAOs to Meet with National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee Fails"

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