이변량 프레임워크를 이용한 도시 폭염에 대한 열 탄력성 정량 평가 = Quantifying urban thermal resilience to heatwaves in cities using a bivariate framework

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Climate change-driven increases in mean temperature and heatwave frequency and duration have intensified urban thermal stress and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, creating a need for systematic climate resilience assessments. However, conflicting definitions of resilience have led to inconsistent metrics, such as disturbance impact, recovery rate, and adaptive capacity, limiting cross-system comparisons and underscoring the need for standardized frameworks. This study quantifies district-level urban thermal resilience in Seoul using the bivariate framework proposed by Ingrisch and Bahn (2018) and hourly temperature data from Seoul S-DoT sensors for June, July, and August of 2024 and 2025. District-level disturbance impact and recovery metrics were derived from temperature flux differences between typical days and heatwave days, defined as days within the top 10% of daily maximum temperatures. The results revealed spatial heterogeneity in baseline-normalized impact (impact base: 66 100%, mean 83.1%) and recovery rate (R base: 6 18% t-1, mean 10.2% t-1), with a statistically significant resistance recovery pattern (r = 0.64, p < 0.05) consistent with previously reported trade-offs in ecological systems. A relationship analysis using the urban heat island (UHI) index showed no significant correlation with impact base (r = 0.15, p = 0.47), whereas a positive correlation with R base was observed (r = 0.43, p < 0.05). Districts exhibited distinct disturbance recovery profiles that were not detected by conventional UHI metrics. These findings support integrated UHI impact recovery assessments for tailored adaptation planning and the extension of this approach to future climate scenarios to enhance urban resilience.